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Inflation analysis: High prices pinch households despite lower consumer inflation in January

Seasonal fruit and vegetables are cheaper, but personal care products, appliances, internet, bus fares, medicines and doctor consultation more expensive than a year ago

February 15, 2021 / 18:08 IST

Lower prices of fruits and vegetables, which helped consumer inflation fall to a 16-month low in January, have not reduced household expenditure as people had to pay more for various products and services including  transport, cooking fuels.

The price of pulses and edible oils, which have been rising in recent months, are also much higher than a year ago.

Cheaper potatoes, onions and winter vegetables such as cauliflower, green peas and radish had cooled consumer price inflation in January 2021 to 4.1%, slowing the rise from 4.6% recorded in December 2020. The rise of the consumer price index (CPI) in January was slowest since September 2019, when it had climbed 3.99%.

The index for petrol and diesel used in vehicles was almost 13% higher, compared to January 2020, while cooking gas was up 11%. Higher petroleum products prices have a cascading impact on other sectors such as transportation.

Inflation data shows bus fares in January were up an annual 12%, while taxi and autorickshaw rates were 7% higher. The hike in bus fares was not entirely due to higher fuel costs as transporters were allowed to raise fares to recoup the loss of revenue from observing Covid protocols.

Medical bills also climbed. The fees for the first consultation with doctors and surgeons in private practice were up nearly 6%, hospital and nursing home charges were up about 5% and the cost of medicines about 7%. The fee for other medical services such as diagnostics too climbed.

The bill for personal grooming also rose. The cost of services of barbers and beauticians were up 8%, with prices of personal grooming and hygiene products such as toilet soaps, toothpaste, toothbrushes, hair oil, shampoos and shaving creams rising between 2% and 6%.

The inflation data also shows that consumers paid higher bills for their internet and mobile phone connections. Both were more than 4% higher compared to January 2020. Cable TV charges were up by more than 8%. The price of newspapers and periodicals are about 5% higher.

Gadgets for everyday use too have become more expensive – the price index for mobile handsets climbed more than 7%, for personal computers, laptops and software by more than 5% and for televisions by over 6%.

Within the food category, prices of meat and poultry climbed and alcoholic beverages, bakery products and savouries moved higher.  Chicken prices were 17% higher than a year ago, even after the bird flu scare, eggs were up 13% and mutton 19%. The price in prices of alcoholic beverages jumped more than 20%, from a year ago, with toddy reporting a 27% rise.

Rising prices of pulses and edible oil will be a matter of worry for consumers and governments in the coming months. An unexpected rise in onions prices in February will also be a cause for concern. Prices of commonly consumed pulses – arhar, moong, masur, urad and gram – have been inching up month after month. In January, they were up between 8% and 16%. Likewise, for edible oils. The index for all edible oils – groundnut, sunflower, soybean and mustard – rose by more than 20% in January, from a year ago.

An increase in the price of LPG announced mid-February will be another expense households will have to account for in the coming months, as also steadily rising petroleum products prices.
Tina Edwin is a senior financial journalist based in New Delhi.
first published: Feb 15, 2021 06:08 pm

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