India may become the third largest economy by the year 2027, said James Sullivan, Managing Director, Asia Pacific Equity Research at JPMorgan. He has also forecast the size of the Indian economy to double to $7 trillion by 2030.
“We are seeing more than doubling of Indian exports from just under $500 billion today to over $1 trillion,” Sullivan said in an interview with CNBC-TV18.
This massive increase in India’s GDP would be possible because of manufacturing contributions rising from 17 percent to almost 25 percent paired with exports doubling to more than one trillion dollars, he added.
James Sullivan further said: “I would argue very strong long-term tactical drivers that make India a key overweight from a structural perspective from JPMorgan.”
Also read: IMF hikes India FY24 GDP growth forecast by 20 bps to 6.3% on strong Q1 data
“From a longer-term perspective, we see massive changes in the overall structure of the Indian economy, which present clear opportunities for sector selection within what we think will be a strong overall market,” he explained.
Sullivan's comments come in the backdrop of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raising its 2023-24 GDP growth forecast for India for the second time in three months, taking it closer to the 6.5 percent predicted by Indian authorities.
According to the multilateral agency's latest World Economic Outlook report, released on October 10, India's GDP is expected to grow by 6.3 percent this year, 20 basis points higher than what it had forecast in late July.
Surprisingly, however, the IMF projected a very modest rise in investment and savings as a percentage of GDP over the next few years.
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Earlier this month, Barclay said in a report, that India will have to target an eight percent growth and try to overtake China if it wants to become the biggest driver of global growth.
According to Barclay’s analysts, India's growth has outperformed the rest of the world, achieving robust expansion with relatively low inflation and it is on the way to achieving at least six percent GDP growth while keeping broad macro stability intact.
“Amid considerable economic turbulence in the rest of the world, India has been an island of relatively better macro outcomes in the past two years. On the surface, India is once again poised to be the fastest-growing major economy in the medium term, as global growth is expected to be weaker through 2023-2024 (compared to historical levels),” the report states.
In 2023, while India's growth has slowed, the report says that it has remained higher than its global peers along with “ample macro stability”.
Meanwhile, as Indians have begun drowning themselves in months of festivities, the e-commerce segment in the country has been witnessing solid consumer demand, despite the sector fighting weak demands otherwise, said Amazon India Vice President Saurabh Srivastava.
“We haven't seen any slowdown of the demand. India is a huge market that is constantly growing and there is no dearth of demand. In fact, we have always been trying to catch up to the demand,” he said.
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