India’s exporters have weathered Washington’s 2025 tariff shock with a mixed scorecard: while smartphones, natural honey, cocoa butter, and tranquilisers posted striking gains between April and August, diamonds and emeralds lost significant ground.
A Moneycontrol analysis of product-level (HS code) export data shows that among items with at least $5 million worth of shipments to the US, nearly half declined year-on-year after the new tariffs took effect. Yet, several consumer-tech and pharmaceutical lines surged enough to keep the overall basket in positive territory.
Smartphones lead the charge
The standout performer was smartphones, which remain outside the tariff net. Shipments to the US nearly tripled to $8.43 billion in April–August 2025 from $2.88 billion a year earlier, driving much of India’s export growth to its largest trade partner.
Natural honey rose 30 percent to $76.6 million, cocoa butter climbed 121 percent to $51.4 million, and tranquilisers advanced 169 percent to $20.1 million.
The broader pharmaceuticals basket, also exempt from tariffs, posted several strong performers—from anti-cancer agents such as paclitaxel and docetaxel formulations to veterinary medicines.
Electronics and capital goods resilient
India’s electronics and machinery exports also continued to grow. Shipments of optical fibre cables rose 182 percent, while printed-circuit boards and control-panel hardware also logged double-digit growth.
Capital goods such as turbines and aircraft parts reflected steady US industrial demand.
Collectively, the covered export list expanded 17.9 percent to $40.34 billion in April–August 2025, up from $34.21 billion in the same period of 2024, supported by medium-sized gains across plastics, garments, and industrial components.
Gems, jewellery and auto parts hit hardest
The gems-and-jewellery complex was the biggest casualty.
Exports of non-industrial cut diamonds plunged 51 percent to $1.07 billion, while emeralds dropped 47.6 percent. Several gold-jewellery categories also recorded double-digit declines.
Precision automotive components were another weak link. Exports of drive axles fell 18.6 percent, gearboxes slipped 15.3 percent, and several engine-component subcategories shrank as the US levied higher duties.
Textiles—particularly bed linen and towels—also struggled: cotton bedsheets were down 14.7 percent, and multiple apparel lines saw year-on-year contraction.
Tariff shock and trade slowdown
The uneven pattern reflects the 2025 US tariff reset, under which duties on a wide range of Indian goods were raised as part of a broader Asia-focused trade realignment.
The impact is expected to deepen through September and October, when India faced some of the highest tariff rates—up to 50 percent—among major trading partners.
Preliminary data show India’s exports to the US fell 11 percent in September, while overall trade growth slowed to 13 percent from 17.9 percent in August.
Negotiations between New Delhi and Washington could yield tariff relief in the coming months, but trade recovery in auto components and industrial goods appears unlikely, given the uniform 25 percent duty imposed on those categories.
A recent Moneycontrol analysis found that nearly a tenth of India’s exports to the US will remain under higher duties even if President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff measures are struck down by the US Supreme Court.
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