India's agrarian crisis has been in the news lately. With massive crop damage and insurmountable losses, some argue that government's Rs 2,000 crore relief package will do little to plug the gaping hole. Unseasonal rainfall has already destroyed acres of rabi crops across India but unfortunately, the Indian Meteorological Department and private weather forecaster Skymet are anticipating more damage led by additional rainfall by March end.
Speaking to CNBC-TV18, GP Sharma, VP-Meteorology, Skymet Weather Services said the additional spell of rainfall (in the end of March) may stretch up to the first week of April further damaging the crops.
BP Yadav of IMD, too, expects another bout of rainfall next week.
Sharma believes government is downplaying the damage done to the crops. "I think we have more than 50 percent of the area affected largely and intensely with these untimely and unseasonal rains. In some of the places this damage is very high. There are no standing crops left now and that is where the fear of farmers slide – they may be big losers on this account," he added. So far, western Maharashtra has seen the worst damage as more than 50,000 hectares of rabi crop, mangoes and other agri-products have been destroyed.
Below is the transcript of BP Yadav’s and GP Sharma’s interview with CNBC-TV18's Nayantara Rai and Surabhi Upadhyay.
Nayantara: Is the government downplaying the crop damage?
Yadav: No, exactly what I am trying to say IMD by virtue of its name, responsibility and mandate is a national agency for weather monitoring and forecasting. We are not the agency to assess the areas of diff crops and the impact and other things. So I have no information about this figure which you are letting to me.
Surbhi: Reports indicate that we are expecting more rain ahead. Is there another spell coming, what sort of expectations do you have towards this inclement weather?
Yadav:That is the right question to IMD and as we have already warned or you can say forecasted in fact three days in advance that another spell of rainfall is approaching north-west India particularly.
A fresh western disturbance will be there from tomorrow. It will start affecting J&K from tomorrow night but on Sunday and Monday it will affect entire Himalayan region, J&K, HP Uttarakhand and also the plains of Punjab and Haryana, Delhi NCR, West UP, adjoining parts of even Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh.
This is a western disturbance which is coming and this will cause some more rainfall adding to the already higher rainfall this month and we have also indicated that given the type of the western disturbance (WD), it is moist and the time of the year, the isolated strong winds at some of the places and the light hailstorm here and there in Punjab and Haryana, West UP, Himachal, Rajasthan, Western part of Madhya Pradesh is also there on Sunday and Monday.
This type of forecast we have issued and I would like to add a bit of more that after this western disturbance which is mainly on March 29 and 30, there is some gap on 31 but another western disturbance on and April 1 and 2 is on the cards so that I can say that this disturbed type of weather is likely to continue with a break of about 24-36 hours around 1 April over north-west India.
Surabhi: At Skymet what is your prediction? The government came up with some numbers which are lower than what the states were earlier saying. What is your assessment at Skymet when it comes to crop damage?
Sharma: First half of March has been quite bad in terms of the intense rains and the other inclement weather activities. The good news was that in the last one week or 10 days we have had a fairly dry weather spell.
However, the damage which the earlier spell has caused over a large area of the country particularly the northern parts, central parts of Madhya Pradesh even coming up to Maharashtra the damage has been phenomenal.
I think we have more than 50 percent of the area affected largely and intensely with these untimely and unseasonal rains. In some of the places this damage is very high. There are no standing crops left now and that is where the fear of farmers slide – they may be big losers on this account.
Nayantara: What kind of areas we are talking about? The government says states have been exaggerating the extent of crop damage. For example, the rabi crop centre says it is 106.73 hectares in 14 states were the damage as against the 181 hectares that was being reported earlier. Have you at Skymet done any form of assessment? Going forward are you expecting any unseasonal rainfall over the next few days?
Sharma: As far as the acreage damage is concerned we still go by whatever earlier statement we had given and large area, yes that remains affected and the second part of your question that what do we expect now. Obviously I don’t have very good news to share with you.
We expect a wet spell in the closing days of this March now and I expect that it will spill over even to the first week of April, rather first 10 days of April I.
The spell which we have in April commencing sometime around first or second and lasting for about four days or so, that is going to be a little more intense than what we had in the last two-three days of March.
I expect that it should commence sometime around March 28 with the northern parts the hilly states but plains will be covered in the next two days that is 29 and 30 it will once again cover a large area covering Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh region.
Discover the latest Business News, Sensex, and Nifty updates. Obtain Personal Finance insights, tax queries, and expert opinions on Moneycontrol or download the Moneycontrol App to stay updated!
