Declining fertility rates are no longer a Southern problem

29 of 36 states in India have a fertility rate of less than 2

People fretting over declining fertility rates is no longer a phenomenon restricted to Western nations—Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently commented on population collapse—but Indian politicians are also worried about declining fertility rates.

Andhra Pradesh CM N Chandrababu Naidu noted that his government was planning to bring a law allowing only people with two or more children to contest local body elections while urging families to consider having more children.

But a Moneycontrol analysis shows that low fertility rates are no longer a Southern phenomenon—29 of India’s 36 states had a fertility rate of less than 2 in 2019-21, as per National Family Health Survey data.

Of the seven which had a fertility rate over 2, only five had fertility rate higher than replacement rate of 2.1.

Replacement rate is the rate at which a population replaces one generation to the next to continue with the same rate of population.

Of these five states, Bihar’s fertility rates were the highest at 3, followed by Meghalaya and Uttar Pradesh at 2.9 and 2.4, respectively.

Andhra Pradesh, where the CM has made a call for more children, had a fertility rate of 1.7, lower than the national average of 2, but higher than Sikkim and Goa with 1.1 and 1.3 fertility rates.

Delhi, Punjab and West Bengal had a fertility rate of 1.6.

The worry for Andhra is that fertility has declined faster than adjoining states like Tamil Nadu.

While Andhra’s fertility rate reduced to 1.7 from 2.6 in 1992-93, that for Tamil Nadu reduced to 1.8 from 2.5 two decades ago.

Delhi and Punjab have witnessed massive declines of 1.4 and 1.3, respectively, during this period.

Dependency a concern

The concern for Andhra Pradesh and other southern states is rising dependency with ageing population.

Andhra Pradesh was among the states with higher dependency ratio than the national average, however, on this count it performs better than its southern counterparts.

Lower fertility ratios in the past have led to southern states having over 11 percent of its old age (65 and above) population dependent on working age people.

As per Moneycontrol analysis of statistics ministry data, Andhra Pradesh had a dependency ratio of 11.5 percent, while Karnataka was 13.3 percent, Tamil Nadu 13.9 percent, and Kerala 21.4 percent in 2023-24.

Telangana had a lower dependency ratio of 10.4 percent, despite having the same fertility rate as Andhra Pradesh.

In contrast, Delhi, which also has a low fertility rate, had a dependency ratio of 9.3 percent compared with the national average of 10.3 percent.

A higher dependency with a lower security net and low incomes translates into more burden for the government.