With the GDP numbers for the January to March quarter of fiscal year 2019-20 (Q4FY20) set to be released on May 29, CARE Ratings expects growth to be 3.6 percent, with the headline number coming down to 4.7 percent for the entire year.
It said the Q4 figures will be noteworthy especially since it includes a week of lockdown, something that could very well skew the growth numbers.
"Several companies tend to have some kind of bunching of activity towards the end of the financial year to meet their targets. This lends an upward thrust to growth numbers. In the Indian case, while the shutdown was in the last week of March several restrictions had come in earlier especially for services which would have pushed back growth numbers further," CARE Ratings said.
"Growth was 5.1% for the first 9 months and would come down to 4.7% by our estimates," it said.
On the subject of growth prospects for FY21, it said the growth figures for the quarter that has gone by would also be relevant when estimating the Q1FY21 growth rate, a time when economic activity in the country had come to a virtual standstill in April.
"The prospects for FY21 in terms of consumption, investment and growth would depend on how soon the nation relaxes the rules of the lockdown and permits economic activity to commence. Second, the response of individuals would be critical on the resumption of this consumption cycle. The reverse migration and unemployment would be major pain points here," it said.Follow our full coverage of the coronavirus outbreak here