Tata Motors Q1 PAT seen down 6% at Rs 2420cr: Motilal Oswal

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26 Aug, 2025 12:21

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Motilal Oswal has come out with its first quarter (April-June) earnings estimates for the automobile sector. The brokerage house expects Tata Motors to report a 38.4 percent degrowth quarter-on-quarter (fall of 5.6 percent year-on-year) in net profit at Rs 2,420.3 crore.

Revenues are expected to decrease by 15.8 percent Q-o-Q (up 8.9 percent Y-o-Y) to Rs 47,162.4 crore, according to Motilal Oswal.

Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) are likely to fall by 26.2 percent Q-o-Q (unchanged on yearly basis) to Rs 5,753.8 crore.

Motilal Oswal report on Tata Motors

We expect JLR volumes to grow 7 percent Y-o-Y (decline 23.2 percent Q-o-Q), driven by the recent launch of Jaguar variants (smaller engines, AWD and XF sportsbrake) and ramp-up of new Range Rover, partially offset by the phase-out of Range Rover Sport.

EBITDA margin is likely to decline 80bp Q-o-Q on lower volumes, weaker mix (higher Jaguar share), and higher discounts on phase-out of Range Rover Sport, partially offset by production ramp-up in high margin new Range Rover.

Standalone volumes would decline 18.8 percent Y-o-Y (21.1 percent Q-o-Q), led by 6.3 percent/43.2 percent Y-o-Y decline in CVs/PVs. Within CVs, MHCVs are likely to report a decline of 12.2 percent, while LCV volumes would decline by 3.9 percent. Standalone margins would remain weak at 3.1 percent (-50bp Q-o-Q, -420bp Y-o-Y) on lower volumes and higher discounts.

We expect 8.9 percent Y-o-Y (15.8 percent Q-o-Q) increase in consolidated revenue. Consolidated margins would decline 170bp Q-o-Q (110bp Y-o-Y). We expect consolidated PAT to decline 5.6 percent Y-o-Y (38.4 percent Q-o-Q) to INR 24.2 billion.