Reliance Industries, the country's largest corporate house by market-capitalisation, is scheduled to announce March quarter earnings on April 30. The consolidated revenue is expected to grow in double digits on a sequential basis, while the profitability may see moderate growth due to sharp surge in tax expenses.
The company is expected to report 6-9 percent QoQ growth in consolidated EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation), supported by all business segments, including recovery in retail, for the quarter ended March 2021.
"We expect an 8 percent sequential increase in RIL's O2C (oil-to-chemical) business EBITDA driven by higher volumes and margins for both refining and petrochemical segments, and partly offset by a stronger rupee against the US dollar," said Kotak Institutional Equities.
The brokerage has forecast 1 percent QoQ growth in Q4 consolidated profit and 19 percent QoQ rise in consolidated revenue.
According to the brokerage, the refining segment is expected to benefit from favourable movement in light-heavy differentials, while the petchem segment could gain from higher product prices and thereby, spreads on non-naphtha feeds.
Kotak expects consolidated EBITDA to increase by 6 percent QoQ driven by Jio as the subscriber base rose to 42.1 crore (up 1 crore QoQ), and retail on sustained sequential recovery in revenues and improvement in margins from a low base.
Reliance Jio Infocomm made off-net domestic voice calls from Jio to any network, anywhere in the country, free from January 1, 2021 after interconnect usage charges (IUC) on such services ended.
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Reliance Industries share price has gained around 2 percent in the current calendar year 2021, and has rallied 44 percent in the last one year period, playing supportive role for the index.
JM Financial expects RIL's Q4FY21 EBITDA to jump 9 percent QoQ on strengthening of petchem margins, recovery in the retail business and growth in Jio's subscriber base (although still weak) and ARPU (adjusted for IUC impact). However, refining margin is likely to continue to be subdued, the brokerage said.
"Digital EBITDA could grow 3 percent QoQ with net subscriber addition likely at 70 lakh QoQ on expectation of some pick up in subscriber momentum from March 2021 due to new Jiophone offer, APRU expected to optically decline to Rs 138 (from Rs 151 in Q3FY21) due to elimination of IUC from January 2021 (though ARPU to rise by around 1.5 per cent on adjusted basis)," said JM Financial.
"Retail EBITDA is likely to rise 8.7 percent QoQ led by recovery in revenue," the brokerage added.
According to JM Financial, PAT is likely to be flattish QoQ due to assumption of higher tax rate at around 13 percent (versus around 1 per cent in Q3FY21).Disclaimer: MoneyControl is a part of the Network18 group. Network18 is controlled by Independent Media Trust, of which Reliance Industries is the sole beneficiary.