Maggi noodles maker Nestle India will showcase its earnings report for the September quarter of the fiscal year on October 16, 2025. Sales growth is expected in the low-single digits, as a result of subdued performance by the beverage portfolio, including in milk and nutrition, along with some disruption owing to GST transition.
According to a Moneycontrol poll of six brokerages, Nestle India is likely to report a 4 percent year-on-year rise in revenue at Rs 5,307 crore compared to Rs 5,104 crore reported in the same quarter last year. Net profit for the July to September period may come in at roughly Rs 729 crore, based on estimates.
Estimates of analysts polled by Moneycontrol are shown to be in a narrow range, meaning any positive or negative surprises may elicit a sharp reaction in the stock price. Among the brokerages polled, Antique Stock Broking rolled out the most bullish projections while Kotak Institutional Equities forecasted the slowest growth for Nestle India.
What factors are driving the earnings?
GST impact: Since 85-90 percent of Nestle India's portfolio (all categories, excluding dairy) has seen a GST rate cut, Kotak estimated a 425 bps impact of trade destocking on domestic revenue growth in Q2.
Weak demand: Brokerages noted that even though urban demand is recovering, following the slowdown, a higher dependency on urban markets might weigh on Nestle India's volumes. Most expectations see volume growth in the range of one to three percent.
Margins: Brokerages expect Nestle India's gross margins to contract between 90 and 140 basis points, impacted by sharp inflation in coffee, cocoa, dairy and edible oils. The EBIDTA margin may decline by ~100 basis points, on account of GM contraction.
What to look out for in the quarterly show?
Analysts will closely monitor the management’s commentaries on demand and material costs. They will also pay attention to raw material prices, particularly for coffee, milk, and sugar, and their effect on EBITDA margins, as well as the growing competitive pressure across segments. Further, updates on distribution expansion and direct reach initiatives will be closely watched out for.
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