The loss at EBITDA level is also expected to decline sharply by 82 percent and 64 percent QoQ by Kotak Securities and Motilal Oswal respectively, on account of higher yields
InterGlobe Aviation, the parent company of IndiGo, is expected to narrow the loss sequentially with robust revenue growth for the quarter ended December 2018.
The stock during the quarter rallied 41 percent on 35 percent fall in crude oil prices, but lost 3 percent in 2018 despite further 6 percent slip in fuel prices.
In the third quarter results, scheduled on January 23, the company is likely to post a loss but that may be far lower than the second quarter.
Motilal Oswal expects a loss at Rs 237.8 crore and Kotak estimates Rs 154.4 crore for December quarter against a loss of Rs 652.1 crore in the previous quarter. In the same period last year, it had reported a profit of Rs 762 crore.
But Edelweiss Securities expects the company to post profit at Rs 359.3 crore for the quarter.
Brokerages say revenue growth is expected to be robust due to high passenger volumes and yield expansion. They largely expect growth in the range of 13-30 percent YoY as well as QoQ.
Edelweiss Securities expects the maximum revenue growth (30 percent YoY and QoQ), followed by Kotak Securities (23 percent each) and Motilal Oswal (13.4 percent each).
"Industry-leading growth (passengers up 24 percent YoY) and yield expansion (5 percent YoY) will lead to another quarter of robust revenue growth," Edelweiss said.
Operational earnings are expected to be weak YoY but sequentially, it may be very strong on lower fuel prices.
Edelweiss Securities expects EBITDAR (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation and rent) to increase 1,242.8 percent sequentially but to decline 23 percent YoY. Motilal Oswal said IndiGo may report EBITDAR of Rs 958.4 crore (down 50 percent YoY and up 763 percent QoQ).
The loss at EBITDA level is also expected to decline sharply by 82 percent and 64 percent QoQ by Kotak Securities and Motilal Oswal respectively, on account of higher yields.
"Higher fuel costs (+75.3 percent YoY) will lead to a decline in EBITDAR on a YoY basis although significantly higher QoQ," Edelweiss Securities said, adding passenger load factor (PLF) will decline to 83 percent QoQ and will continue to remain under pressure as capacity expansion at IndiGo is close to 3x industry growth.
Key issues to watch out for
> Induction of new aircraft in the fleet> Fuel costs and their impact on yields