Gold was trading a tad lower in the Indian market on March 31 after settling a percent higher on the previous day. Silver, too, opened on a negative note, declining 0.3 percent.
On the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold contracts were down 0.08 percent at Rs 50,911 for 10 grams at 9.27 am and silver was down 1.08 percent at Rs 66,679 a kilogram.
Gold and silver recovered from five-week lows on March 30 amid a recovery in crude prices and a drop in the dollar index and US bond yields.
“Precious metals also get support from the downbeat US fourth-quarter GDP data released on Wednesday”, said Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvi Finmart Commodity Research. Progress in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, however, capped the gains for the precious metals, he added.
Both metals settled on a positive note in the international markets. A strong bounce-back in crude prices from the week’s low of $98.44 in Nymex futures was the bullish element for the raw commodity sector.
April gold futures contract settled at $1,933.50 a troy ounce, a gain of 1.11 percent, on March 30, and May silver contract closed at $25.11 a troy ounce, up 1.51 percent.
June gold contract in the domestic markets closed at Rs 51,776 per 10 grams, gaining 0.95 percent, and May silver futures contract settled at Rs 67,406 a kilogram, up 0.69 percent.
Crude prices recovered smartly after a heavy sell-off at the beginning of the week as inventories declined in the United States. The dollar index also slipped from its to below 98-marks on, while benchmark 10-year bond yields cooled off to slip below 2.40 percent after hitting a three-year high.
The US commerce department said on March 30 that, the third and final estimate for fourth-quarter GDP showed that the American economy advanced by 6.69 percent, down from the estimated 7 percent.
“Traders and investors continue to assess three major factors that have been impacting most markets: Russia-Ukraine war, new COVID lockdowns in China and rising global inflation,” said Amit Khare, AVP- Research, Commodities, Ganganagar Commodity Limited.
With all three of these ominous elements in the marketplace, US stocks are trending higher and have hit a nine-week high. “The rebounding stock markets are a bearish factor for the safe-haven metals,” he added.
Trading strategy
Manoj Kumar Jain, Prithvi Finmart Commodity Research
We expect both precious metals to remain volatile in today’s session ahead of the OPEC meetings.
Gold has support at $1,922-1,908 and resistance at $1,945-1,958, while silver has support at $24.84-24.55 and resistance at $25.40-25.70.
On MCX, gold has support at Rs 51,550-51,300 and resistance at Rs 51,920-52,100. For silver, support is at Rs 67,100-66,500 and resistance at Rs 67,850-68,200.
We suggest selling in June gold futures contract around Rs 51,850 with a stop loss of Rs 52,050 on a closing basis for the target of Rs 51,500.
Amit Khare, AVP- Research Commodities, Ganganagar Commodity Limited
Gold and silver showed some short-covering rally on March 30. April Gold made a low of Rs 51,410 then a high of Rs 51,870. Silver made a low of Rs 67,082 then rose to Rs 67,795. Market is very volatile due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis.
As per the technical charts, gold and silver are showing weakness. Momentum indicator RSI, too, is pointing to the same in the hourly as well as the daily charts.
Traders are advised to create fresh sell positions near given resistance levels and focus on these technical levels for the day:
June gold closing price Rs 51,776, support 1–Rs 51,500, support 2– Rs 51,200, resistance 1–Rs 51,900 and resistance 2–Rs 52,100
May silver closing price Rs 67,406, support 1–Rs 67,000, support 2–Rs 66,400, resistance 1–Rs 67,500 and resistance 2–Rs 68,000.
Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities, Mehta Equities Ltd
On March 30, gold and silver traded on a positive note on corrective bounces from recent selling pressure that pushed the metals to five-week lows the previous day.
A strong bounce-back in crude oil prices from this week’s low of $98.44 in Nymex futures is a bullish element for the metals markets.
The dollar index also slipped below the 98-mark from its highs, while benchmark 10-year bond yields also cooled off and slipped below 2.40 percent after hitting a three-year high. Precious metals also get support from the downbeat US fourth-quarter GDP data.
Gold has support at $1,910-1,895 and resistance at $1,940-1,950. Silver has support at $24.35- 24.00, while resistance is at $24.95-25.24.
In rupee terms, gold has support at Rs 50,650–50,370, while resistance is at Rs 51,240–51,520. Silver has support at Rs 66,550- 66,120 and resistance is at Rs 67,520–67950.
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