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Crude oil rises on strong demand outlook, drawdown in inventory; climbs 55.76% in H1 2021

Crude may remain sideways ahead of OPEC meeting but the general bias remains positive as OPEC may maintain gradual production hike stance.

Mumbai / July 01, 2021 / 04:37 PM IST
The black gold has been trading higher than 5, 20, 50, 100 and 200 days simple moving averages and exponential moving averages on a daily chart.

The black gold has been trading higher than 5, 20, 50, 100 and 200 days simple moving averages and exponential moving averages on a daily chart.

Crude oil futures hit fresh 52-week high and highest since October 2014 on MCX on depleting US Crude inventories and strong demand outlook. Traders await OPEC+ meeting today to decide on August output quota but worries over Delta variant in major oil-consuming nations kept market cautious.

Crude oil has been the top-performing asset class in 2021 delivering 55.76 percent gains on MCX in the first half of the year. The energy commodity traded at day’s high on the firm global trend.

On the MCX, crude oil delivery for July gained Rs 82, or 1.49 percent, to Rs 5,574 per barrel at 16:07 hours IST with a business turnover of 10,658 lots. The delivery for August soared Rs 69, or 1.26 percent to Rs 5,530 per barrel with a business volume of 490 lots.

The value of July and August’s contracts traded so far is Rs 1,033.74 crore and Rs 16.00 crore, respectively.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 1.81 percent to $74.80 per barrel, while Brent crude, the London-based international benchmark, climbed 1.66 percent to $75.86 per barrel after touching $76 during the day.

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“NYMEX crude trades higher near $74.2/bbl. Crude oil has turned rangebound today amid a mixed US EIA report which noted a sharp drop in US crude stocks but a rise in gasoline stocks. Market players are now positioning for the OPEC+ meeting today. OPEC is expected to gradually hike production owing to an improved demand outlook. Weighing on price is mixed economic data and renewed virus concerns. Crude may remain sideways ahead of OPEC meeting but the general bias remains positive as OPEC may maintain gradual production hike stance”, said Ravindra Rao, CMT, EPAT, VP- Head Commodity Research at Kotak Securities.

Prathamesh Mallya, AVP Research Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies, Angel Broking Ltd said, “Oil prices have reported a significant growth in the past months as prospects of increasing global fuel demand in the coming quarters with economies reopening underpinned the prices.” “Global investors are expected to remain cautious ahead of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies meet scheduled on 1st July’21.”

The US Energy Information Agency reported that US crude inventories declined by 6.7 million barrels for the week ended June 25 surpassing the market expectation of a 4.2 million barrel drop and reporting the sixth consecutive weekly fall.

Technicals

The black gold has been trading higher than 5, 20, 50, 100 and 200 days simple moving averages and exponential moving averages on a daily chart. The momentum indicator Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 73.57, indicating bullish movement in prices.

Trading Strategy

Tapan Patel- Senior Analyst (Commodities), HDFC Securities

Crude oil prices extended gains on strong demand outlook and drawdown in US weekly inventories after EIA data showed US stockpiles fell by 6.7 million barrels last week. The traders and investors are awaiting an outcome from OPEC plus meeting on whether they would maintain or ease supply cuts in the second half of the year.

Crude oil prices are expected to trade sideways to up for the day with resistance at $76 and support at $73 per barrel. MCX Crude oil July has support at Rs 5,470, resistance at Rs 5,590.

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Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
Sandeep Sinha

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