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Crude oil retreats on lower demand concern; focus on weekly inventory report

Crude may remain range-bound ahead of inventory report and prices may weaken if EIA report fails to surprise.

Mumbai / July 14, 2021 / 06:08 PM IST
Crude oil prices are expected to trade sideways to higher for the day with resistance at $76 and support at $73 per barrel.

Crude oil prices are expected to trade sideways to higher for the day with resistance at $76 and support at $73 per barrel.

Crude oil prices traded lower on July 14 amid reports of low crude imports from China, deadlock among OPEC members over production quota. Further, investors eyed US inventory data due later in the day. The oil price was also pressured downward by concerns of monetary tightening by the US Fed and stronger dollar.

The energy commodity traded in the red after a gap-down start, tracking the weak global trend.

On the MCX, crude oil delivery for July eased Rs 20, or 0.34 percent, to Rs 5,589 per barrel at 17:04 hours IST with a business turnover of 4,860 lots. The delivery for August slipped Rs 14, or 0.25 percent to Rs 5,573 per barrel with a business volume of 2,254 lots.

The value of July and August’s contracts traded so far is Rs 1,472.34 crore and Rs 264.97 crore, respectively.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 0.48 percent to $74.89 per barrel, while Brent crude, the London-based international benchmark, fell 0.27 percent to $76.28 per barrel.

Close

“NYMEX crude trades in a narrow range near $75/bb. Crude is steady as support from expectations of a decline in US crude stocks and IEA’s warning about a tighter market is countered by Fed’s monetary tightening concerns, rising virus cases and API report. API noted a smaller-than-expected 4.079 mn bbl decline in US crude oil stocks and a smaller drop in gasoline stocks. Crude may remain range-bound ahead of inventory report; however, prices may weaken if EIA report fails to surprise,” said Ravindra Rao, CMT, EPAT, VP- Head Commodity Research at Kotak Securities.

Market participants will take a further cue from the US Energy Information Administration weekly oil report scheduled to be released later in the day.

Technicals

The black gold has been trading higher than 5, 20, 50, 100 and 200 days' simple moving averages and exponential moving averages on the daily chart. The momentum indicator Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 61.65, which indicates bullish movement in the prices.

Trading Strategy

Tapan Patel- Senior Analyst (Commodities), HDFC Securities

Crude oil prices traded down on lower demand concerns from China. Crude imports in China, the world’s top oil importer, reportedly dropped by 3% from January to June 2021 year-on-year. The US API data showed a draw of 4.079 million barrels for the week ended July 9. 

Crude oil prices are expected to trade sideways to higher for the day with resistance at $76 and support at $73 per barrel. MCX Crude oil July has support at Rs 5,520 and resistance at Rs 5,650.

Kshitij Purohit, Product Manager, Currency & Commodities, CapitalVia Global Research Limited

MCX Crude is trading with marginal bearish momentum and has already declined 50 points since the last close. We may expect the prices to rise in the evening session where Rs 5,620-Rs 5,640 levels may be tested.

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Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
Sandeep Sinha

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