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Crude Oil Futures Firm At Rs 2,973, Brent Trades Below $42 A Barrel

In the futures market, crude oil for November delivery touched an intraday high of Rs 2,977 and a low of Rs 2,925 per barrel on the MCX

Oct 22, 2020 / 05:13 PM IST

Crude oil futures traded firm at Rs 2,973 per barrel on October 22 as participants increased their long positions. Prices pared morning losses and traded in the green in the afternoon session.

The rise in fresh COVID-19 cases across regions alongside growing oil inventories sent crude prices lower on October 21.

In economic data, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude inventories fell by 1 million barrels for the week-ended October 9.

West Texas Intermediate crude was up 0.65 percent at $40.29 per barrel, while Brent crude, the London-based international benchmark, rose 0.6 percent to $41.98 per barrel.

MCX iCOMDEX Crude Oil Index was higher at 23.17 points, or 0.68 percent, to 3,441.55 at 15:51 hours.

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In the futures market, crude oil for November delivery touched an intraday high of Rs 2,977 and a low of Rs 2,925 per barrel on the Multi-Commodity Exchange (MCX). So far in the current series, black gold has touched a low of Rs 2,798 and a high of Rs 3,127.

Crude oil November delivery gained 23, or 0.78 percent, to Rs 2,973 per barrel at 15:56 hours IST on a business turnover of 3,467 lots. The same for December delivery inched higher by Rs 10, or 0.33 percent, to Rs 3,002 per barrel on a business volume of 45 lots.

The value of November and December’s contracts traded so far is Rs 656.05 crore and Rs 0.44 crore, respectively.

So, how will crude trade next week? Sunand Subramaniam, Senior Research Associate at Choice Broking expects crude prices to remain mixed on concerns that the OPEC will move ahead with plans to ease their supply cuts even as a spike in COVID-19 cases in Europe and the US is curtailing demand in two of the world’s biggest fuel-consuming regions. "The prevailing stimulus hopes in the US could limit major downside movement in the coming week," he added.

Trading strategy

Sriram Iyer, Senior Research Analyst, Reliance Securities

International oil prices are trading extremely range bound and remained volaille in Thursday’s afternoon trade in Asia.

Oil prices were under pressure after the most recent data released from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed a smaller-than-anticipated draw in US oil stockpiles and build in gasoline inventories adding to concerns of market saturation amid weak demand. However, hopes over additional coronavirus stimulus aid package and OPEC’s compliance efforts on output capped downside.

Markets could look to cues from the jobless claims and existing home sales data tonight for the pace of the economic recovery. Technically, NYMEX WTI Crude Oil gave a sharp fall yesterday where it halted its downside momentum near $39.70 levels indicating some consolidation in the  of $39-$40.6 range.

Domestic oil prices tracking international prices and remained rangebound this Thursday’s afternoon trade. Technically, MCX Crude Oil November did not manage to sustain above Rs 3,000 levels where it plunged below 50 as well as 100 Daily Moving Average. However, it is holding support of Rs 2,950 levels. It is likely to trade in a Rs 2,940-3,010 range.

Ravindra Rao, VP-Head Commodity Research, Kotak Securities

NYMEX crude trades flat near $40.15/bbl recovering some losses seen in the early session. Crude is pressured by mixed inventory report, rising virus cases, rising Libyan output and lack of any fresh measures recommended by OPEC. Crude may remain under pressure amid weakening demand outlook as seen in the unexpected increase in EIA gasoline stocks and robust supply. On the MCX, it would trade in the range of Rs 2,880 to Rs 3,020 (November futures contract).

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Sandeep Sinha
first published: Oct 22, 2020 05:13 pm

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