Q1 FY14GDP seen in 4.3-4.8% range: CNBC-TV18 Poll

The first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) number will be announced today. The figure could be lower than the street expectations of 4.7 percent. A CNBC-TV18 poll suggests that the GDP could be in the range of 4.3 to 4.8 percent.

There is a range for the GDP data which is more pertinent as opposed to the consensus poll because a lot of economists cannot or are finding it a little difficult to factor in the rupee depreciation which started on May 22, reports CNBC-TV18’s Ekta Batra. To put it into perspective, May 22 onwards to now, the rupee has depreciated 20 percent, but this depreciation was captured into GDP data only for a few days in May and for the entire June. But most of the pertinent impact on growth was July onwards when the RBI started liquidity tightening measures. From that perspective, Q2 FY14 GDP data assumes more importance. There could be a bit of a negative surprise. CNBC-TV18 is working with a consensus estimate of around 4.7 percent, but the street is expecting anything between 4.3 percent and 4.7-4.8 percent. Within these three categories, the industry segment is going to be the most affected by the rupee depreciation and is expected see mere growth of around 1 percent. Mining may decline 3.5 percent; the index of industrial production (IIP) expectation for the entire quarter declined 1.1 percent indicating weak numbers. Services will slowdown and is expected to stand between 6 percent and 6.5 percent. It will be boosted by community services, which comprises of government’s spending and agri. It is expected to see 2.5 -3 percent growth this time.