Buy Jindal Steel; target of Rs 1240: Motilal Oswal

Motilal Oswal's research report on Jindal Steel

Jindal Steel (JINDALST)’s revenue for 2QFY26 stood at INR117b (+4% YoY vs. our estimate of INR107b), declining 5% QoQ due to muted realization. The ASP stood at INR62,491/t (+3% YoY and -3% QoQ) vs. our estimate of INR59,508/t in 2QFY26. The rise in the export share from 7% in 1QFY26 to 10%, along with an all-time high value-added share of 73% (rise in the share of flats in the sales mix by 5%) in 2Q, resulted in better-than-expected NSR. Adj. EBITDA stood at INR20.8b, down by 5% YoY and 31% QoQ (against our est. of INR15.8b) over muted realization and stable cost. EBITDA/t declined to INR11,129/t (-6% YoY) in 2QFY26 from INR15,819/t in 1QFY26.

Outlook

We largely maintain our earnings estimates for FY26/27E. At CMP, the stock trades at 7.3x EV/EBITDA on FY27E. We reiterate our BUY rating with a TP of INR1,240, based on 7.5x EV/EBITDA on the Sep’27 estimate.