Buy Dalmia Bharat; target of Rs 1495: Motilal Oswal

Motilal Oswal's research report on Dalmia Bharat

DBL’s 3QFY21 result highlights continued market share gains as volumes grew 14% YoY despite weak demand in the South India, supporting 51% growth in EBITDA. We expect market share gains to continue, supported by ~30% capacity expansion over the next one year. DBL has announced a doubling of capacity in three years to 56mtpa. We await further clarity on the same (expect it to be brownfield and focused in the South and Northeast). We have raised our FY21E/FY22E EPS by 4% each on higher volumes. Reiterate Buy.

Outlook

We expect net debt to decline further. Valuation is reasonable at 9.2x FY22E EV-to-EBITDA and EV-to-capacity of USD93/t. Reiterate Buy with a TP of INR1,495/share (at 9x Dec’22E EV-to-EVITDA).