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Narrow participation

When a stock is below its 200-day moving average, we can conclude that it is in a long-term declining trend. Currently about 70% of NYSE stocks are below their 200-DMA, yet the NYSE Composite is very near all-time highs. This shows how narrow participation has become, meaning that money has become concentrated in a small group of large-cap stocks. This deterioration has taken place over an extended period of time (about a year and a half), and currently the configuration is quite similar to the setups into the July 1990 and October 1994 tops. The subsequent results of those tops were declines of 20% and less than 10% respectively, showing that there is a wide range of possible outcomes, but I think we should be expecting some serious trouble in a month or two.

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