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7 December 2018

Friday

Safe bets in a volatile market

After rallying in the last week, Nifty traded cautiously in this eventful week to once again close below its 200 DMA of 10750 levels. After two consecutive gap downs of about 50 and 65 points on Wednesday and Thursday respectively, the Index managed to give a positive close on Friday. Amidst all the macroeconomic volatility, Index is expected to trade lower in the next week.

Over the week it made a weekly low of 10588 on Thursday while a weekly high of 10922.45 was made on Monday itself. Eventually Nifty closed at 10701   
                                                                                                                               

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About Mitessh Thakkar

SEBI registered Research Analyst: INH000000321

Mitessh Thakkar is a postgraduate in management with specialization in finance. He has been tracking the equity markets since 1999. It was his love of numbers that drew him to the stock market and made him develop a technical approach to trading and investing. He soon realized the importance of having a good strategy of entering and exiting positions as the key ingredient in realizing profits from investments and trading activities.

He gained quick recognition in the field of technical analysis due to his knowledge and experience. While working for some of the best broking establishments in India, Mitessh has been regularly invited by TV Channels and business magazines to share his views on stocks and indices and provide share market tips. He has also been a visiting faculty with the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) & National Stock Exchange (NSE) on the subject.

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MITESSH THAKKAR This week Nifty finally managed to cross its moving average on the daily chart and maintained it for the entire week. On Friday it made a weekly high of 10519.90 while on Monday it made a weekly low of 10328.50. Eventually Nifty closed at 10480.60 with an up-move of 1.44% during the week.

10.06 AM

TOP TRADES TOP TRADESTOP TRADES TOP TRADES

ARVIND LIMITED CMP – Rs. 410.55
 
The stock price has experienced a bullish MACD crossover on the daily and weekly charts. The stock has crossed its vidya on the daily and weekly charts. The momentum indicators as also in line with the upcoming trend on the daily and weekly charts. The stock price has crossed the 200 DMA and has been trading above it on the daily charts while forming a double bottom on the weekly charts. It can go another 30 – 35 points up once it crosses 415..
 
The stock price has experienced a bullish MACD and moving average crossover on the daily and weekly charts. The momentum indicators as also in line with the upcoming trend on the daily and weekly charts. The stock price has crossed the 200 DMA and has been trading above it on the daily charts and trading above its moving average on the monthly charts. It can go another 60 – 65 points up from the current levels.
 
The stock price has experienced a bullish crossover of its MACD on the daily and weekly charts. The stock price is trading above its moving average on the daily and weekly charts. The momentum indicators have started an uptrend on the daily and weekly charts. The stock price has crossed its 200 DMA and broken a triangle on the daily charts.. The stock price can go 30 – 35 points up from the current levels..
 
Overnight on Friday, the US jobs data came in better than expected.  On Monday markets are expected to react to this along with the outcome of OPEC meet on Friday where it was decided to keep the production unchanged. Lower Shale gas production as well as Rigs data which fell for the 26th straight week, initially led a rally in Oil but the OPEC meet put a lid leading to a weekly loss.  However, analysts are of the opinion that US$ 60 could become the new normal for oil.
 
Developments in Greece will be closely watched. It notified that it plans to bundle its June loan repayments into one of around euro 1.6 billion due by the end of the month. Greece was expected to default, hence this is on the expected lines but the authorities are trying to defer the inevitable. A Grexit could lead to short term weakness in the European Markets as questions would arise about the future of the other weaker economies in the Eurozone.
 
For the coming week, events scheduled are Current Account Deficit, Trade Balance data, IIP (April) data and CPI (May) data. In addition to this, progress of monsoon will be keenly watched as it has already hit the Kerala Coast in South India. On the currency front, pressure on the Rupee continues on back of rise in global bond yields. I expect it to remain range bound in the near term with Rs. 64.50-65/USD as a strong resistance.
  
Overall, I expect markets to consolidate at these levels for the next few days as Nifty 8000/8050 provides a good support. We could even stage a feeble rally to 8200-8250 but I would suggest traders to book out of long positions as the markets may not sustain over a medium term.  Monsoon progress would play a key role and the uncertainty could continue for the next few weeks. The end of June or early July could provide opportunities to investors as a fall below Nifty 8000 could lead to a fire sale which would be the time for re-building the long term portfolio.
 
Stock of the Week :
 
Nitin Spinners is into manufacturing 100% Cotton Yarns and Fabrics.  It manufactures range of yarn which includes open end yarns, multifold open end yarns, ring spun combed yarns, multifold ring spun yarns, S and Z twist yarns, dyeable cheese cones and organic cotton yarns and blends. The company's range of products are used to manufacture products, such as apparel and garments, under garments, terry towels, woven fabrics, home furnishings, carpets, denim, industrial textiles, medical textiles and socks
 
After the 2008 global crisis, it had substantial forex losses due to which the Company had resorted to CDR in 2009. In 2013, it was able to voluntarily exit from CDR after paying a recompense amount to its lenders. Debt has come down since then. It declared its first dividend in FY14. It has undertaken expansion in FY14-15 after which its spindle capacity has gone up to 150,000 and 3,000 rotors.
 
So, overall the company has done a few things right which is showing in the financials. The market has recognised this in the last few weeks. At CMP of Rs 56, it is trading at PE of 6.3x its FY15 EPS of Rs 8.94 and still seems cheap compared to competitors
 

 

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We and our affiliates, may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (is) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as advisor or lender/borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. This information is strictly confidential and is being furnished to you solely for your information. This information should not be reproduced or redistributed or passed on directly or indirectly in any form to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject us to any registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdiction. The distribution of this document in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and persons in whose possession this document comes, should inform themselves about and observe, any such restrictions. The information given in this document is as of the date of this report and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with this information. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. We reserve the right to make modifications and alterations to this statement as may be required from time to time and are under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Nevertheless, we are committed to providing independent and transparent recommendation to our clients and would be happy to provide any information in response to specific client queries. Neither we nor any of our affiliates shall be liable for any damages whether direct, indirect, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The disclosures of interest statements incorporated in this document are provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report.


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Mitessh Thakkar Standard Disclosure:


The purpose of this disclaimer is to state that the newsletter, which is a part of the service, is for personal use and not for circulation. This document has been prepared by Mitessh Thakkar. This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction and is only an expression of technical views. The information contained herein is from publicly available data or other sources believed to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such. Kindly note that we shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. This document is provided for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. The user assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Each recipient of this document should make such investigation as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult his own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such investment. The investment discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all market participants.



We and our affiliates, may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (is) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as advisor or lender/borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. This information is strictly confidential and is being furnished to you solely for your information. This information should not be reproduced or redistributed or passed on directly or indirectly in any form to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject us to any registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdiction. The distribution of this document in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and persons in whose possession this document comes, should inform themselves about and observe, any such restrictions. The information given in this document is as of the date of this report and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with this information. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. We reserve the right to make modifications and alterations to this statement as may be required from time to time and are under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Nevertheless, we are committed to providing independent and transparent recommendation to our clients and would be happy to provide any information in response to specific client queries. Neither we nor any of our affiliates shall be liable for any damages whether direct, indirect, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. The disclosures of interest statements incorporated in this document are provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report.


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