Counting gets underway in Uttar Pradesh, all eyes on these crucial seats

Uttar Pradesh

As counting begins, all eyes will be on the politically significant state of Uttar Pradesh. The state, with 80 seats, plays a significant role in national politics. A good show by political parties in these 80 seats becomes instrumental for outfits wanting to play a decisive role in the corridors of power in Delhi.

In 2019, NDA won 64 Lok Sabha seats in UP with BJP’s tally alone being 62. In 2014, the BJP won 71 seats in the state. Right through the campaign, the saffron party had maintained that it will better its previous two performance— in 2014 and 2019.

Right through the campaign, the saffron party had maintained that it will better its previous two performance— in 2014 and 2019.

The state is home to several key constituencies and important political match-ups are expected through the day. Among these seats, Raebareli and Amethi, traditionally Gandhi family strongholds, are under intense scrutiny.

Here are a few of the key seats to watch out for:

1) Amethi: The Lok Sabha seat from where incumbent BJP MP Smriti Irani, who had defeated Rahul Gandhi in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, is getting more eyeballs. With Rahul Gandhi deciding to contest from Raebareli, the Congress has fielded party worker Kishori Lal Sharma from the seat, which has in the past been represented thrice by Rahul Gandhi and four times by his father, the late Rajiv Gandhi. Sonia Gandhi and Sanjay Gandhi had also won from Amethi.

2) Rae Bareli: In Raebareli, vacated by Sonia Gandhi after five consecutive victories, Rahul Gandhi has stepped in to carry the family’s political legacy in the seat that has seen several Gandhi family stalwarts emerge victorious. Exit polls predict an easy win for Rahul who is up against BJP’s s Dinesh Pratap Singh.

3) Varanasi: Prime Minister Narendra Modi is seeking his third term from the hoy city. He is up against Congress’ Ajay Rai who lost to Modi twice in 2014 and 2019, and was pushed to the third position by AAP’s Arvind Kejriwal and SP’s Shalini Yadav had pushed him to third position in the earlier two Lok Sabha elections.

4) Lucknow: Defence Minister Rajnath Singh is seeking re-election for the third time from Lucknow. The Lok Sabha seat has been a BJP bastion since 1991, having been represented by Atal Bihari Vajpayee five times; the saffron party seems pretty ensconced in the seat.

5) Ghazipur: In Ghazipur, incumbent lawmaker Afzal Ansari is contesting. The death of his brother – gangster-turned-politician Mukhtar Ansari – will prove to be a key factor. Afzal Ansari, Mukhtar's elder brother, won the 2019 Lok Sabha election from Ghazipur on a Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) ticket. This year, he is contesting again but on a Samajwadi Party (SP) ticket. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has fielded Paras Nath Rai, while the BSP has nominated Dr. Umesh Kumar Singh.

6) Ghosi:  In Ghosi, SP’s Rajiv Rai is contesting against Arvind, who is son of Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) chief Om Prakash Rajbhar. The BJP and SP are attempting to capitalise on the fact that the BSP’s incumbent MP, Atul Kumar Singh, also known as Atul Rai, spent his entire five-year term in jail on charges of rape and abetment of suicide. However, Atul Kumar’s victory in 2019 had been massive, securing 50.27% of the votes, and finishing 1.22 lakh votes ahead of the BJP’s Hari Narayan.

7) Mainpuri: Another Samajwadi Party stronghold, Mainpuri was the one of the only Yadav family fiefs that the party was able to hold on to in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Since 1996, when Mulayam Singh Yadav first won the Mainpuri seat, it has remained with the party through every subsequent election and by-election. After the death of her father-in-law in 2022, Dimple Yadav was fielded from the vacant Mainpuri Lok Sabha constituency seat, which she won by defeating BJP’s Raghuraj Singh Shakya by over 2.8 lakh votes.

8) Kaiserganj: The Kaiserganj Lok Sabha seat has been dominated by the BJP in recent elections, securing victories in both 2014 and 2019. With Brij Bhushan Singh's son, Karan Bhushan Singh, in the fray, the SP has nominated Bhagat Ram Mishra, the elder brother of former BJP MP Daddan Mishra. In the 2019 elections, BJP’s Brij Bhusan Singh won for the third consecutive term. He defeated Chandradev Ram Yadav of the BSP by a margin of 2.6 lakh votes.

9) Kairana: Pradeep Chaudhary, previous winner of this seat for the BJP, faces competition from young Samajwadi party candidate Ikra Hasan. Hasan hails from a political family; her mother Tabassum Begum won this seat for the BSP in 2009. The constituency, known as the sugarcane belt, is one of the Muslim dominated areas. The absence of an alliance between the RLD and Samajwadi party, and the RLD's tie-up with the BJP, could influence the Jat and Muslim voters.

For 2024 parliamentary polls, the BJP has allied with Apna Dal (Sonelal), Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) and the Nishad party (Nirbal Shoshit Hamara Aam Dal), which caters to three key caste groups: Kurmi, which felt a rivalry from the Yadavs for not getting enough political representation, the assertive Rajbhar and Mallah from the extremely backward castes, whom the BJP has tried to woo by celebrating Raja Suheldev Jayanti (and the projection of his fighting Islamic rulers).