As the elections in Western Uttar Pradesh enter their final phase where polling will be held on 10 seats on May 7, the political landscape is rife with competing narratives and pressing issues. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is vying for victory on all the 10 seats, anchoring its campaign on the pillars of Hindutva, the Ram Mandir, and the promise of robust law and order. In contrast, the Samajwadi Party (SP) is endeavoring to leverage the discontent simmering among the populace on the issues of unemployment, stray cattle and Agniveer scheme.
Highlighting the campaign strategies, a BJP spokesperson Manish Dixit said: "Our agenda revolves around the core values of Hindutva, the long-awaited construction of the Ram Mandir, and the assurance of maintaining law and order."
Conversely, an SP representative Ashish Yadav said: "We are capitalizing on the dissatisfaction prevailing among the people due to the ruling party's governance failures, particularly in addressing crucial issues like employment generation and lack of development in this region.
In the third phase, elections would be held in 10 seats including Agra, Fatehpur Sikri, Budaun, Bareilly, Aonla, Mainpuri, Etah, Sambhal, Firozabad and Hathras. This region comprise Muslims 39%, OBC 22%, Dalits 19% and General 18% and rest 2%.
The 2019 election results showed a sweep by BJP when it won 8 out of these 10 seats. The won only 2 seats - Sambhal with 14.8% vote margin and Mainpuri with 9.7% vote margin. In contrast BJP won Fatehpur Sikri with 47% vote margin.
Driving through these constituencies one can come across concerns of people which varies region to region, district to district and even caste to caste. “Whatever the issues like, on the polling day people were cast their votes in favour of their caste only. People will talk about hundred things before election, but on the D-day their caste will take precedence over their concerns,” said Deepak Shakya, a school teacher while sipping `lassi’ at Dinanath Lassi store in Bareilly.
He highlighted the enduring influence of caste dynamics in electoral outcomes. “Jaati is the only driving force which decides whether you will win election or lose it,” he said before finishing the last drop of lassi with a hearty slurp.
A senior journalist in Mainpuri, Dilip Sahu said that the area has many problems like lack of job opportunities. Two decades back there were over 100 rice mills in the region and now we are left with dozen. No political party talks about this.
“As Mainpuri and Saifai are Mulayam Singh Yadav’s karmasthal, people vote for the Samajwadi Party because they feel pride in aligning with the first political family of UP,” Sahu said.
Jitendra Pandey highlighted the enduring influence of caste dynamics in electoral outcomes.
The religion and caste of the respondents also found echo in their response about election, and issues. The Muslims castigated BJP government, while the majority of OBCs and Upper caste talked about the good work being done by the Modi-Yogi government.
In Aonla, Budaun, and Sambhal, the plight of farmers gripped the discourse, with Asif from Sambhal said: "Farmers are neglected, as evidenced by the prolonged protests at the Delhi-Punjab border over MSP and fair crop prices."
Meanwhile, the specter of unemployment and the recent controversies surrounding Agniveer recruitment and paper leaks dominated discussions in Bareilly, Etah, and Mainpuri.
In Firozabad, Agra, and Hathras some people extolled the virtues of Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath's governance model, lauding its strides in law enforcement and Hindutva ideology, others lamented the mounting inflation and dwindling employment opportunities.
Interacting with residents across various constituencies revealed a nuanced tapestry of opinions. Avinash Sharma, a bangle shop owner in Firozabad, credited the BJP for curbing hooliganism and controlling crime. Conversely, Anwar Ahmed from the same locality decried perceived biases against Muslims and voiced support for SP.
Insightful commentary from seasoned journalists and political experts shed further light on the electoral dynamics. Dilip Sharma underscored the perennial challenge of unemployment in Mainpuri, while Jitendra Pandey highlighted the enduring influence of caste dynamics in electoral outcomes.
As Western UP braces for the conclusion of its electoral saga, the electorate stands at a crossroads, torn between entrenched loyalties and pressing concerns. Whether the BJP's narrative of Hindutva and governance prowess will prevail, or if the SP can capitalize on grassroots discontent, remains to be seen as the ballots are cast and the fate of the region hangs in the balance.
The third phase of polling is on May 7.
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