Bihar Exit Polls: BJP-led NDA to get 31-34 seats, INDIA bloc to bag 6-9 seats; predicts News18 exit poll

Bihar

Other than Uttar Pradesh, the Bharatiya Janata Party -led NDA is hoping for a grand show in the politically significant state of Bihar. The state of Bihar, having  undergone major political churn post the JDU chief Nitish Kumar's switchover to the NDA fold is predicted to give around 31-34 seats to the NDA grouping and around 6-9 seats to INDIA grouping.

According to the prediction, the NDA grouping is expected to get around 57 per cent vote share, whereas INDIA grouping is expected to get 35 per cent.

In the run up to the polls in Bihar, political pundits had concluded that BJP’s chances of replicating its 2019 tally appears very remote. They had premised their conclusion on the fact that Nitish Kumar’s frequent flip-flops have caused a severe credibility crisis as his voters look confused this time.

In such a situation, there is a possibility of a split in the JD(U)’s core votes, particularly the extremely backward classes (EBC), and hence the BJP leadership is working hard to limit the possible damage.

Sensing the changed political scenario in the state, the saffron party has allotted fewer seats to Kumar’s JDU than the saffron party in Bihar in the Lok Sabha polls. BJP remains hopeful that Kumar's policies favouring the extremely backward classes and the Mahadalits will secure a reliable vote-bank for the JD(U) and, by extension, the NDA.

BJP had won 39 out of 40 seats in 2019, with a vote share of 54%. The bar seems too high for it given the political turbulence in the state in months before the polls. While the BJP won 22 of 40 seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the BJP, won 31 seats.

Analysts feel the growing disenchantment among young voters, falling polling percentage and the way employment was slowly becoming an issue had prompted PM Modi to take to streets and calm down people’s frayed tempers.

According to an official report, the total number of electorates in the age-group of 20-29 years is 1.6 crores out of Bihar’s total electorates of 7.64 crores, amply indicating the importance of the young voters.

RJD, leading the INDIA alliance in Bihar has leveraged its Muslim-Yadav base, aiming to challenge the NDA's dominance by expanding its social base by wooing the EBCs which form a sizable and decisive vote-bank.

RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav's emphasis on unemployment and government job provision positions the RJD more favourably compared to 2019. His role in the caste census along with Kumar and efforts to enhance OBC reservations to 65 per cent have also contributed to an improved public image which may broaden the RJD's electoral appeal.

RJD’s reported expansion of its Muslim Yadav vote bank in 2020 Vidhan Sabha polls, one of its greatest weaknesses. RJD was able to make a 10% dent in EBC / MBC vote of NDA in 2020 Vidhan Sabha polls. UPA won 110 versus NDA’s 125 seats in a house with a simple majority of 122.

The loss was mostly due to the poor 27% strike rate of Congress, which won just 19/70 seats. Both RJD and Left parties recorded a strike rate of 50%+. Had Congress won 12 more seats with a strike rate of 34% UPA / MGB would have formed the government.