Monsoon reaching Kerala on May 27 — earliest onset in over a decade

The eagerly awaited southwest monsoon is poised to make landfall in Kerala on May 27, five days ahead of its usual onset date, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). This early arrival, forecast with a model error margin of ±4 days, marks the earliest onset over the Indian mainland since 2009, when the monsoon began on May 23, as per the IMD record, as reported by PTI.

The IMD’s announcement signals a crucial transition from the hot and dry season to the much-needed rainy period, especially for India’s vast agricultural sector. “All conditions are favourable for an early onset. High night-time temperatures over northwest India are a good indicator. Our models are showing early monsoon onset,” Dr M Mohapatra, Director General of IMD, was quoted by Hindustan Times.

Satellite images already show dense cloud cover over the Andaman Sea and around Kerala, with the monsoon expected to reach the Andaman and Nicobar Islands by May 13 before advancing to the Kerala coast. The IMD uses a sophisticated statistical model, relying on six predictors including minimum temperatures over northwest India, pre-monsoon rainfall peaks and wind patterns over the Indian Ocean, to forecast the onset date.

The monsoon typically covers the entire country by 8 July, bringing relief from scorching summer temperatures and replenishing crucial water reservoirs. The rains are vital for India’s agriculture, which supports roughly 42% of the population and accounts for 18% of the country’s GDP, the PTI reported.