Pollutants released from Punjab farm fires so far had little impact on Delhi’s air this season, but their contribution to pollution is expected to rise sharply in the coming days.
According to the Decision Support System (DSS), which functions under the Union Ministry of Earth Sciences, the share of stubble burning in Delhi’s PM2.5 concentration is likely to jump to 16% on Thursday and further to 29% on Friday.
From October 1 to November 4, the contribution of paddy stubble burning to Delhi’s pollution remained mostly below 2%, peaking at 5.88% on October 28, DSS data showed. The delayed harvesting season in Punjab and Haryana this year has postponed the peak burning period, officials said.
Delhi air turns severe : AQI nears 600 just a day after recording cleanest Nov air in 5 years
Meanwhile, the air quality in Delhi and NCR cities further deteriorated on Thursday morning, with the air quality index of Delhi touching 600 at around 5.30 am. The air quality in Delhi NCR pushed past the ‘severe’ category in several areas in the early hours of Thursday.
Neighbouring cities also recorded alarming numbers. Noida’s AQI stood at 503 at 7 am, while Gurugram’s was 515, both falling in the ‘severe’ range.
Officials said the combination of calm winds, low temperatures, and accumulating local emissions has caused pollutants to remain trapped close to the ground.
Environmental experts warn that with the onset of north-westerly winds over the next few days, smoke from Punjab and Haryana’s stubble fires could worsen the situation further.
Pollution peak between November 6-12
Gufran Beig, founder of the System of Air Quality and Weather Forecasting and Research (SAFAR) and a professor at the National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), said the full impact of stubble burning is usually seen between November 4 and 8 each year.
"Data from previous years shows that its maximum impact is generally witnessed between Nov 4 and Nov 8. However, due to floods in Punjab this monsoon, harvesting was delayed by a week. As a result, the maximum impact window is expected between Nov 6 and Nov 12," he was quoted by TOI as saying.
Past records show the share of stubble burning in Delhi’s PM2.5 has reached as high as 58% in 2018, 48% in 2021, and around 35% in the last two years. The extent of the impact depends on wind direction and speed, if north-westerly winds are weak or absent, smoke may not reach Delhi. But if local winds remain still, pollutants can accumulate quickly.
Krishna Mishra, a scientist with the India Meteorological Department (IMD), said that west-north-westerly winds are expected to blow towards Delhi for the next five days, which could increase the inflow of smoke from farm fires.
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