Soon after U.S. President Donald Trump began his second term in office, he hosted Prime Minister Narendra Modi who was in Washington on an Official Working Visit. The Joint Leaders’ Statement issued at the end of the visit emphasized the neat overlap of values between two vibrant democracies and a partnership anchored in mutual trust.
Commentary in Indian media following the visit was almost euphoric. A mere six months later, the commentary on India-U.S. bilateral ties is undergirded by rancour. The sharp swing is bound to leave people confused. Surely, the experts couldn’t have been so out of touch with the underlying reality a few months ago.
Rajiv Kumar and Ishan Joshi in their book ‘Everything All At Once: India and the six Simultaneous Global Transitions’ connect multiple dots to provide an insightful explanation into the underlying phenomena that surface in the form seemingly unexpected turn of events. It shouldn’t be wholly unexpected, as the book shows.
Rajiv Kumar is a familiar name to those who follow economic policy. His innings as the second Vice Chairman of Niti Aayog was preceded by stints in think-tanks and in government. He has had a ringside view of policy making for a few decades.
The authors identify the most consequential contemporary global developments which seem disparate. However, they cut through the surface to synthesize the underlying features. What makes this book important for being an informed citizen is that meta-trends are analyzed through an Indian prism. This is not an instance of vanity. India, a “swing state”, today finds itself at the cusp of a world that is hurtling towards a new balance of power. Unlike similar moments after World War II, the authors argue the long drawn transition provides India operational space to influence outcomes.
Six consequential transitions
The six hugely consequential transitions identified in the book are geopolitical transition; transition of global centre of activity from transatlantic region to the Indo-Pacific after more than two centuries; the geoeconomic transition; transition of economic power away from OECD to emerging economies of Global South; technological transition and transition from carbon neutrality to reducing carbon footprint to carbon removal.
The last two, according to the authors, are perhaps the most disruptive of the six simultaneously unfolding transitions. The book’s approach is reminiscent of judicial verdicts, where complex issues are broken down into a series of questions, making it easier for a reader to grasp the essence. This approach helps one get a handle on the subject.
China everywhere
An almost overwhelming presence in the book is China, understandably as it’s a key catalyst of the ongoing global transition. In the context of the most recent developments, it’s interesting to note the authors advocate a pragmatic approach to the country. They caution against a reckless attempt to portray China as a bogeyman, something that India at its current stage of development cannot afford to internalize.
This prescription is not based on a starry-eyed view of China’s communist party. It’s just that India’s best response to a fragmenting international order is to strengthen its strategic autonomy, which can be realized through faster economic growth.
That said, the jury’s out on the book’s call for a Sino-Indian compact which can anchor the 21st century.
GDP is not everything
Given Rajiv Kumar’s close association with the policy world through the nascent stages of 1991 economic liberalization, an interesting aspect of the book is the suggestion that India may have to move away from a single-minded pursuit of GDP growth, which ignores equity considerations.
The authors propose the construction of a gross welfare product index, and prefer its adoption and achieving OECD level of HDI as the touchstone of Viksit Bharat.
It’s hard to argue against the book’s identification of the consequential transitions. Perhaps, in another part of the world some other transition may seem more important, but the six identified in the book are indeed what will leave a lasting impact.
‘Everything All At Once’ is an important addition to the corpus of work that seeks to make sense of a bewildering series of shifts. Synthesis to provide a framework to think about these issues is a tall order. That is exactly what the authors set out to do, and they have succeeded.
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