Global CO2 emissions to drop 2.8% in 2009

Global carbon dioxide emissions are set to fall an estimated 2.8% this year because of the financial crisis, after having risen 2% in 2008, a leading annual report on the globe's "carbon budget" says.

The Global Carbon Project report, released just weeks before a major UN climate conference in Copenhagen, shows emissions from developing nations continuing to soar, driven in large part by consumer demand in rich countries.

Developing nations are now responsible for 55% of mankind's total carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, said Pep Canadell, Executive Director of the Global Carbon Project.

And China is a key driver of rising emissions, says the report involving 31 authors and published in Nature Geoscience.

In 2005, nearly a third of China's emissions came from the production of exports, up from 16% in 1990, it says, with big-spending rich nations effectively exporting emissions to poorer nations to meet demand for TVs, cars and other goods.

The Global Carbon Project draws on the work and data from government agencies and research bodies around the world. It assesses CO2 emissions from human activities, such as burning coal and oil, and deforestation as well as how much planet-warming CO2 is taken up by nature.

The report says fossil fuel CO2 emissions rose 2% in 2008, more slowly than 2000-2007, when they increased 3.5% per year. Between 2000 and 2008, global fossil fuel emissions increased by 29%.

The findings closely match estimates by the International Energy Agency, which said in September global CO2 emissions would drop about 2.6% this year.

"In 2009, it is likely that the global financial crisis will cause global emissions to actually fall by a couple of percent," said Michael Raupach, co-author of the report and co-chair of the Global Carbon Project.

But the dip could be very short-lived, he said, given the strong link between CO2 emissions and economic activity.

"If the recovery follows current predictions, the effect of the crisis will be as if all burning of fossil fuels had been stopped for a period of just 6 weeks," he told reporters.

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