OPEC may not need to act as market tightens: Saudi

RELATED NEWS OPEC output may not need to change this year: Saudi

Oil demand is picking up and that could mean OPEC does not need to take any further action on supply this year, the group's biggest producer Saudi Arabia said as ministers prepared to rubber stamp existing outpaced targets.

"We have been sailing very well and we will continue to sail very well," Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi told reporters a day ahead of its meeting on Wednesday, as other members voiced concern OPEC is pumping too much oil.

OPEC President Ecuador, arriving late on Tuesday, said it was looking for compliance with output curbs but there was no need for changes to the current output ceiling.

In December 2008 OPEC members said they would sharply curb supply to 24.84 million barrels per day (bpd) as the chill of recession threatened to shrivel oil demand.

But with rising prices in the last year and a hesitant global recovery, revenue-hungry OPEC members have increased supply. In February, OPEC delivered just 53% of the pledged output curbs - down from 81% a year ago.

There is no sign yet prices will fall as a result, with benchmark WTI just above a USD 70-80 range that the United Arab Emirates Oil Minister Mohammed bin Dhaen al-Hamli said on Tuesday was "acceptable and reasonable for producers and consumers," echoing Saudi Arabia's view.

"There is a reasonable stability of prices so we consider, it is not necessary to change production conditions," OPEC President and Ecuadorean Energy Minister Germanico Pinto said.

But gains on Tuesday of close to USD 2 per barrel were largely on the back of a weaker dollar after the US Federal Reserve kept its key interest rate steady.

Short-term risks

Prices remain vulnerable, however, to concerns the global economic recovery is still uncertain, with much resting on China's ability to power growth and the skill of governments in unwinding measures taken to survive the worst of the recession.

"The economy, the big consumers, are slowly coming back out of recession. We expect this year a small recovery in terms of demand," Ecuador's Pinto said.

In the short term, the risk remains that prices could fall on seasonally lower demand in the second quarter.

Royal Dutch Shell Chief Executive Peter Voser said on Tuesday oil market fundamentals remained weak in the short term but medium term demand is robust.

Saudi Arabia, OPEC's heavyweight with the greatest output flexibility, remains more relaxed about overproduction than some colleagues, seeing demand rising to mop up supplies in the second half as China drives the recovery in the global economy.

"The market is happy, there is balance, there are no shortages, there is enough investment going on," Naimi said.

A lot is riding on China's anticipated explosive expansion.

OECD head Angel Gurria is forecasting global growth of 4 to 4.5% this year because "China and India are pulling very hard."

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expected China's economy to expand 10 percent this year.

"Most (OPEC) producers are already back to capacity. But those in the GCC that still have spare capacity will want to see real demand from customers, before they increase supply," said PFC director of market analyst David Kirsch.

Of OPEC's 12 members, all but war-ravaged Iraq have agreed to curb output -- and all are pumping more than they said they would. On Tuesday, Angola and Nigeria said they took issue with their quotas.

"You want me to say I am happy? I am not happy. No one is happy with a quota, you are not jumping for joy when you get it," Nigerian Oil Minister Rilwanu Lukman said.