Fed weighs publishing consensus forecast

The Fed has opened its deliberations more widely to public view in recent years. Last year, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke began holding regular news conferences, and this year the central bank began providing projections for the path of interest rates.

In part, this growing transparency has been in response to criticism of the institution's reputation for secrecy, but officials believe it also improves the effectiveness of monetary policy. By providing clearer policy guidance, officials believe they can better align financial markets with their objectives.

Fed officials continued a long-running discussion of communications at their last policy-making session on June 19-20, meeting minutes released on Wednesday showed.

While officials now provide individual forecasts of when and how quickly interest rates will rise, policymakers noted that they do not provide information about how those views come together to shape the Fed's outlook for the economy and the appropriate policy path, the minutes said.

To that end, Bernanke asked a group of policymakers studying possible communications improvements to explore offering a consensus forecast from the central bank's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee.

Officials said that if they could come up with an economic forecast and an associated path for monetary policy that reflected the collective view of the FOMC, it would help clarify how the outlook and policy decisions are related, the minutes said.

However, some Fed officials questioned whether such a forecast would be feasible.

Policymakers also wondered whether the Fed shouldn't take a break from making changes to its communications routines after the series of major steps it has taken in recent months, which have included the adoption of an explicit inflation target.

Officials also pointed to the usefulness of presenting the range of views among Fed officials on the economic outlook and policy, as it currently does.

The minutes left unclear how quickly the Fed might move forward, if it does.