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Jul 25, 2012, 11.35 AM IST
Spain's debt concerns and little hope of Greece meeting its bailout terms has cast fresh doubts about the country's future in the euro zone.
Spain's increasingly desperate struggle to put its finances right has seen its borrowing costs soar to levels that are not manageable indefinitely, reflecting a growing belief that it will need a sovereign bailout that the euro zone can barely afford.
It has become the recent focus for investors, but Greece - where the sovereign debt crisis began - remains a powder keg. If Athens were to default or exit the euro zone, the knock-on effects could push Spain and even Italy over the edge.
With inspectors from the EU, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund returning to Greece to decide whether to keep it hooked up to a 130-billion-euro lifeline or let it go bust, three EU officials said they were likely to conclude Athens cannot repay what it owes, making a further debt restructuring necessary.
This time, the European Central Bank and euro zone governments would likely have to take a hit on some of the estimated 200 billion euros of Greek government debt they own if Athens is to be put back on a sustainable footing.
But there is no willingness among member states or the ECB to take such dramatic action at this stage.
"Greece is hugely off track," one of the officials told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity. "The debt-sustainability analysis will be pretty terrible."
Prime Minister Antonis Samaras said Greece's economy could contract by more than 7% this year, pushing debt-cutting targets further out of reach, but he pledged to stay the course.
"There are certainly delays in this year's agreed programme, and we must quickly catch up," Samaras told party colleagues. "Let's not kid ourselves, there is still big waste in the public sector, and it must stop."
The Spanish Treasury sold the 3 billion euros of three- and six-month bills it was aiming to, though yields climbed; the six-month paper jumped to 3.691% from 3.237% last month.
"The most important takeaway from this auction is that Spain was able to get all its debt out the door," said Nicholas Spiro of Spiro Sovereign Strategies. "Still, in March, Spain was able to issue six-month debt at a yield of under 1%. Now it is paying 3.7%."
Spain had cushioned itself by securing well over half its annual debt needs in the first six months of the year when market conditions were more benign, but that advantage has evaporated.
On Friday, the government said it expected the economy to remain in recession well into next year, while the autonomous region of Valencia became the first to ask Madrid for aid to pay debt obligations it cannot meet. Others are expected to follow.
Spain's northeastern region of Catalonia, responsible for a fifth of the country's economic output, admitted it had financing needs to meet while its access to markets was shut, but had not decided yet whether to tap a state liquidity line.
Bond market message
On the secondary market, Spanish five-year government bond yields rose above 10-year yields for the first time since June 2001. Having to pay more to borrow shorter-term rather than longer-term is usually a sign that markets think the risk of a default or debt restructuring has increased.
"The spread between 5- and 10-years moved to negative today, which is a classic sign that the market thinks the current trends are unsustainable for Spain's fiscal dynamics," said Nick Stamenkovic, bond strategist at RIA Capital Markets.
The return investors demand to hold Spanish 10-year bonds is now at 7.6%, while the cost of insuring Spanish debt against default has also hit record highs.
Ten-year yields above 7% have proved to be a tipping point leading eventually to bailouts for other countries in the euro zone, though Spanish Economy Minister Luis de Guindos insisted on Monday that Madrid would not need more aid.
The government has already asked for up to 100 billion euros to recapitalise the nation's banks, which have been battered by a four year economic downturn and a property crash.
The government has launched a fresh 65 billion euro package of tax rises and spending cuts designed to chip away at its debt mountain but it will also probably drive the economy deeper into recession.
The alarming spiral of Spain's debt costs has banished any hopes that a bailout of its banks, or a June EU summit that gave the euro zone's rescue funds a green light to intervene in the markets, has put the debt crisis into abeyance.
Spain and Italy have called for help to ward off market pressure. The ECB has cut interest rates but has shown marked reluctance to revive its bond-buying programme, the only mechanism that could lower borrowing costs at a stroke.
French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said further aid for Spain could take the form of an increase in Europe's rescue fund or action by the ECB.
"I hope it will not be necessary to intervene again," he told France 2 television. "If we have to intervene, it could be an increase in the firewalls ... or interventions by the central bank."
The euro zone as a whole is now subsiding into recession.
Business surveys on Tuesday showed the currency area's private sector shrank for a sixth month in July, with the downturn that began in the euro zone's high debt nations now becoming entrenched in Germany and France.
Credit ratings agency Moody's Investors Service lowered its outlook for Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg to negative from stable late on Monday, citing an increased chance that Greece could leave the euro zone.
It also warned Germany and the other 'AAA'-rated countries that they might have to increase support for Spain and Italy. De Guindos will meet his German counterpart, Wolfgang Schaeuble, in Berlin later.
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