May 07, 2013, 11.27 AM IST | Source: CNBC-TV18

Stable global cues to keep Nifty in 5850-6100 for few weeks

The mood for the Indian market among foreign institutional investors has improved quite dramatically, Udayan Mukherjee, managing editor, CNBC-TV18 said.

The mood for the Indian market among foreign institutional investors has improved quite dramatically, Udayan Mukherjee, managing editor, CNBC-TV18 said.

According to him, correction in crude and gold prices has brought India back on the global radar. The fall in commodity prices will ease the current account deficit, which is a major concern.

"India is on the radar, people would like the comfort in seeing crude in double digits to be able to put more money to work out here but in sharp contrast to how people were looking at emerging markets in general. India in the months of January, February, March, it is fair to say that India has come back into the frame somewhat,” he added.

Meanwhile, he expects Nifty to hover in 5,850-6,100 range for the next few weeks if all cues in global markets remain stable.  

Also Read: Market may consolidate; be on long side: Sukhani

Below is the verbatim transcript of Udayan Mukherjee’s view on CNBC-TV18

FII view on India

The mood on India from the people that I have spoken to so far has improved quite dramatically. Just a few weeks back and India was not on the radar of many large global European investors. However, that one week where crude and gold collapsed, that is when India came back on the radar of a lot of people. Now, people are saying that if commodities do keep their head down and it is a big ‘if’ because over the last 2-3 days that is what a lot of investors are trying to grapple with on, whether this current risk-off, this hope that things are improving on the margin after the jobless claims numbers in the US over the weekend is leading to some optimism in commodities again.

Copper has bounced back, crude has come back to USD 105 per barrel and that is not typically a scenario, which people will like about investing in India. So the good India scenario which was playing out for a lot of people was that commodities are coming down which addresses the current account deficit (CAD) and to an extent the rupee. In a situation of macro stability, one can go about buying some good quality Indian stocks that have not gone away.

People believe that the Indian opportunities are beginning to open up and look a bit better right now, but they are watching commodities very closely once again because they did not get as much dovish tone from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) as they might have expected.

Putting some of these things together, India is on the radar, people would like the comfort in seeing crude in double digits to be able to put more money to work out here but in sharp contrast to how people were looking at emerging markets in general. India in the months of January, February, March, it is fair to say that India has come back into the frame somewhat.

What global investors made of RBI policy

On the central bank disappointment, I do not think it is a big deal. People would have liked to see a little bit more dovish tone from the RBI because this time they have some good things to play with. Since the RBI is still sounding very hawkish, it seems they are doing these rate cuts quite reluctantly and maybe they will move a couple of times over the next 10 or 12 months but that is not material enough as a trigger for the stock market.

However, what I do not think a lot of people are saying that because the central bank is not very dovish, that weakens the India case substantially. The India problems are much more to do with whether growth will revive significantly because they have taken the RBI's sub 6 percent growth target on board as well.

So, a lot of investors are not very sanguine about whether growth will pick up as substantially this year or as substantially as the government believes. This leads to a lot faster acceleration of earnings and limitation of earnings downgrades during the next few quarter. People are still hesitant on that, but I do not think the RBI monetary easing cycle is the reason why they are coming to India once again.

Maybe a slight touch of disappointment and therefore robbing major firepower for the rate sensitives in the near term, but the bigger macro picture is what a lot of the global investors are playing for.

Investors and global markets

What will happen with global growth, it is a billion dollar question. In the last few days, people are getting a little more hopeful that things are on the mend and there will not be a big summer correction in the global equity markets this time around. That hope has come back, but this is scaring me because people I speak to seem very confident, infact bordering on complacent about global market.

Last year, there was so much fear all around and that is why equity markets did very well, everybody was prepared for things to go wrong in the global equity markets, Europe was a big risk last year, people were talking about lot of other scenarios that could go wrong and within that fearful kind of situation where people were positioned bearishly, stock markets did very well.

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READ MORE ON  market, FIIs, commodities, CAD, RBI, crude, copper, gold

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