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RIL ex-bonus, F&O expiry eyed: Udayan

Published on Wed, Nov 25, 2009 at 10:29 | Source : CNBC-TV18

Updated at Thu, Nov 26, 2009 at 09:20

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Udayan Mukherjee, Managing Editor, CNBC-TV18

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"Yesterday was a quiet close for our markets and today the global cues are very quiet as well but there could be lot of activity around these quiet markets because tomorrow is futures and options (F&O) expiry," said Udayan Mukherjee, Managing Editor of CNBC-TV18 on his show Bazaar Morning Call. "Tomorrow is also when Reliance Industries goes ex-bonus and so today is the last day it will trade in its cum-bonus form and that could be an interesting thing to watch for traders."

"There is a small listing, Astec Lifesciences , so that might engage some trader interest as well this morning otherwise things seemed to have flattened out 5,100 Nifty and around 1,100 for the S&P index."

Here is a verbatim transcript of Udayan Mukherjee's comments on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video.

Q: Do these flat sessions tend to lead to something big in either direction?
A: It will but later in December. December, usually, has a habit of moving a bit on the way up and not so much on the way down. So you could expect a little bit more of a move in December. However, November has been a quiet month. The fag end of it is quite taken up with rolling of futures and options series now or settling the expiry tomorrow. We might spend a couple of sideways kind of sessions.

If the November expiry is between 5,000 and 5,100, it will not be taken as a bad event for the market at all. Therefore, we just need to get over through the next couple of days and the attention will be well focused on a few stocks. Individual sectors like autos might do well. Reliance could be quite interesting. More like stock specific rather than Nifty specific kind of day is coming up.

Q: Is it looking like an uptrend for Nifty?

A: We could spend a couple of days more. This would not be a dire outcome for the Nifty around this level of 5,100. Give or take 50-60 points, on either side, if the Nifty spends a little bit more time, I think its fine. It is not looking like there is great momentum in the market. It looks a little tired around these levels. However, we have come a long way. A pause or bit of circling around, before taking out an intermediate high, is not such a bad thing.

Whether the market is exhibiting great momentum and is ready to go to 5,300-5,400, is unknown. Given what the screen is saying, perhaps with not that level of conviction. However, I don't think anything is broken on the screen.

There was a China led scare yesterday. On another day, the market could have given much more ground but it did not. It chose to bounce back and closed just about 10 odd points lower. Hence, there is resilience in the market. It is not falling off quite so easily and is not going up over the last couple of days. I think the next couple of days are just getting expiry out of the way. If global cues are still supportive, then the Nifty will or can attempt a move past its intermediate high. The near-term trend for the trader is not broken yet. Certainly not on the evidence of what we saw yesterday.