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Tuesday was a splendid pullback for the stock market and today too things are quite supportive––the
Hence the global background should nudge the Nifty higher and there is no reason for the Nifty to give up some of yesterday’s gains at all. Market is in the pullback groove once again from its recent correction.
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Also read: Wall Street ends with moderate gain
Today we should not give up yesterday’s gain. Yesterday was good; global markets helped us, the Finance Minister's peech towards the end added a bit of fillip to the market, so the mood cannot be too bad of course it was not backed by volumes which makes you suspicious at all times so we could have a little bit of an upmove maybe 50-60 points early this morning takes us to 4,150 and then we should try and hold that kind of level – not slip below 4,100 again and try and hold that for a couple of days because that might settle nerves.
I don’t think we have a directional trend yet – Cannot say with the confidence that the market has hit a low, intermediate low though it appeared like that yesterday and is ready to get back to 4,500 kinds of levels. So maybe that kind of conclusive move has not happened but little bit of a pullback and hopefully if we can consolidate around here for a couple of days people will find confidence once again. Let’s see.
Asian Indices:
Most of the Asian markets are holding up in the green, it not tiring away as it was yesterday but they are playing at consolidation which is good. So percent and a half for the Straits Times, 1.5% up for the Taiwanese index, the Nikkei is a bit flat this morning but the Hang Seng is up nearly 250.
On upside for our markets:
We should get up a bit more maybe 4,150-4,200 even the level our chartist was talking about that looks entirely likely. The bigger question is whether 4,000-3,950 was an intermediate kind of bottom or support which will hold now and the market having touched that is ready to get back into some kind of an uptrend once again.
Also it’s all happening too fast; the market darts up to 4,650 then falls off to 3,950 then starts moving up again. So you got to ask yourself whether at some point the market will form some kind of a range and spend some time within that range for a few weeks at least because that’s not happening.
I don’t know whether even if you get to 4,100-4,250 and then the market probably gives up some, if some bad news comes in globally and whether we can form some kind of a range with 4,200-4,250 on the way up and 3,800-3,900 on the way down that would not be such a bad outcome, it would merely mean that the market is consolidating 10-15% lower than its recent high of 4,650 and that would not be such an undesirable kind of outcome at all. But you don’t know whether that will happen or having touched 3,950 the market will now start moving back again and it may not stop at 4,200.
So first, yes, we do get up to another 50-100 points higher on the Nifty and then you will have to see whether fresh supply is coming in, how global markets are holding and whether the Nifty can climb above that and get back into 4,300-4,600 kind of groove once again. I am not sure whether that will happen just immediately but we will have to wait and watch for the next few days. But I think we need to get through the next 100 points on the Nifty and see how the market is passing that test and whether supply is coming in at higher levels.
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