Mkt could trade sideways with volatility

Published on Mon, Apr 20, 2009 at 09:09 |  Source : CNBC-TV18

Updated at Mon, Apr 20, 2009 at 15:02  

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Udayan Mukherjee, CNBC-TV18

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The point you were making about noise - is it more with reference to the Futures & Options side?
I think there are two things which you need to watch now: (a) volatility and (b) what kind of money flows are coming into the market. The rest is not a great thing to monitor; one can talk about put call ratios and futures open interest everyday but that will not give you any direction.
In volatility things are interesting because not only has the implied volatility of the options gone up by roughly 5 percentage points, average of 35-36% has gone up to 40-41% on an average, so implied volatility have moved up. But if you look at the India VIX (Volatility Index) which is very interesting, the India VIX was 37 two weeks back or six days back and is now moved up to 50. So the spike in the India VIX is probably telling you that volatility is going up quite a bit. I do not know what that portents for the market but sometimes volatility speaking after a good rally is not the best of sign, so you need to be a bit careful on that score.
To counter that flows have been very good; if you map the month of April, month till date we are more than 3,600 crore from FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investors) in the cash market and that is not a small amount. So we are probably on course for a billion dollar kind of a month, the month of April and that is one reason which is supporting the market quite bit.
We have got the money flows from FIIs, you have got good pile up happening on the Futures market however the market is getting volatile around an important resistance level, so just need to marry the two internals little bit.          

  

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