Global mkts in good shape; Nifty stuck in trading zone

Today it is more of the same, the trigger is behind us and now we wait through the last few days of earning season with global markets being rock-solid support that they have been for the last month, said Udayan Mukherjee, managing editor, CNBC-TV18.

Yesterday’s price action was quite disappointing, there is no getting away from that, particularly when an important day or trigger day plays out in a way that one gets a illusion of a breakout and then it just fizzles out completely by the end of the day. That’s more damaging than losing 40-50 points in the ordinary course of events on any given day, so yesterday mid-cap sagged and the Nifty turned around at 6,050. But it is difficult to say that the market broke down because it is still within that trading range.

Sometimes, when the market approaches that 6,000 level gives you the impression that it is about to breakdown, but the evidence of the last few weeks is that it does not and it manages to bounce back within that trading range. Maybe it is liquidity, maybe it is global markets, and whatever it is market seems supported at lower levels.

It is not breaking out, it is not breaking down. It is just frustrating the bears and the bulls on both sides. So, as we were discussing a couple of days back. It is not a great market to trade around in because the gains are very small at best one can scalp them. Yesterday I imagine that people or short-term traders lost money rather than made money.

It is difficult to call. It is tempting to say that yesterday’s price action means that the market is probably on its way down, but who knows today because of global factors you might see another upmove, which takes the market closer to 6,100 again. It is not a great-looking screen; it is a tired-looking screen, but still no evidence of a major thrust on either side.

The global markets are remarkably calm, the Dow is 2 percent from its all-time high, Eurozone is so quiet, China has been doing fine and that’s what is holding up everything. The global strength is just remarkable. In our market too a lot of people have been feeling a little skeptical about near-term performance, but they have just not got any support on the way down from global markets.

Global market strength is completely remarkable. It is gradually inching towards that all-time high and it is not giving any major corrections at all, but that is where the worry lies. A lot of people have started watching over their shoulder on the kind of relentless rise that we have seen in global markets, the relentless cushion of liquidity and whether this is the last bit of euphoria or complacency that plays out, lot of people forget about the possibility of a correction and then out of nowhere something like that comes about and that is a fear, which our markets have. It is just that if the global markets had supported on the way down, the Nifty would have gone in for a deeper correction.

But it corrects one day and then the next morning it wakes upto the US market having gone up some more, a Rs 1,000 crore of Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) flows reported and then the picture changes somewhat. The bears are not getting any support from global markets. As long as global plus liquidity construct remains in place corrections will be shallow as they have been for the last one month.