Global cues negative; Nifty to be rangebound till expiry

But, this is an important week with the October series F&O expiry, and key earnings like L&T, HUL, ICICI Bank, M&M stacked up as well. In the early next week, the RBI would announce its credit policy. It seems like it’s an important ten day stretch for the market.

October true to tradition probably will still end by scalping a little bit of flesh from global markets. It looked like it was not heading like a true October, but some limited damage is probably on the cards given the kind of poor results that have been coming out from the US companies. It is a fairly poor earning season or one of the worst earning season one has seen from the US market in recent memory. There have been a string of disappointments. Also, the euro summit did not produce the kind of results, if the street was expecting anything to come through from there.

Crude and gold have all taken fairly sharp knocks, but its difficult to say whether we are approaching or entering a phase of a correction for a week or so in global markets because the last couple of down draws have also been met with, followed by some fairly significant pullbacks. It is difficult to say whether this is a 5-7 percent kind of a corrective phase or just a one-off because of earnings disappointments, which the market might be able to shrug off. As we enter in an important week and the fact that hopes were raised last week of a crossover above an important hump, I guess this is an ill time global correction that set in.

Despite Rs 11,000 crore of FII money coming in it is disappointing that has been tough for the Nifty to take out 5,720 level of resistance. We got USD 2 billion in a series and the index did not move at all. Despite, fairly significant money flows we have seen a lot of consolidation in the market and what was disappointing on Friday or would have left a lot of traders disappointed is that there was no follow-up to Thursday’s move and we once again struggle to take out that 5,730 hump.

The way cues are now, possibilities are that we go down to those 5,650-5,630 kind of zone which has been the support zone for the market again retest it and see if it is holding. But whichever it is sliced, our market is still trapped in that 100 point trading range.

It increasingly looks that the October series will expire within that trading range. It is not a terribly uncomfortable outcome but once may have thought after Thursday that there is little it of follow-up and hopes might have got raised about moving beyond that or moving at least to that 5,800 kind of level by the time this series is out.

But maybe all that work will have to be done post the monetary policy and getting into the November series. For the next few days unless L&T brings a rabbit out of its hat today and propel the market, it looks like a range bound couple of days leading up to expiry this time.