Big mkt upsides look difficult ahead

Here is a verbatim transcript of Udayan Mukherjee on CNBC TV18. Also see the accompanying video.

We are back after a long weekend and thank heavens for that holiday yesterday otherwise we would have sold off, the great Guru Nanak saved the market yesterday. There was a global sell off but we did not participate in that. But will that have some kind of a lingering impact this morning – maybe? Maybe we start in the red but maybe not as badly as most Asian markets started off yesterday. So today things have sort of eased off or plateaued off a bit after the Friday drubbing across global markets and earning season has come to an end and not very well either. So there is a lot of earnings reactions to react to as we start off on a fresh slate for November.  

Our markets toady:

We will start a bit soft because the feel good factor is probably just gone out of the market for the moment. Its not just about 500 points on the Nifty but the way it’s happened over the last couple of weeks, lot of failed attempts to claw back. I think the general feeling good for traders is that, so what it’s just down 100 points, we should buy it and get it back - that feel good probably is not there. There is no momentum in the market on the way up at this point at least. So I guess we start a bit soft and try and hang around this kind of levels but upsides or big upsides from here do look a bit difficult.

On Nifty

Everybody is talking about these kind of levels - 4,600 as the mean and if the market does crack a little bit more maybe 4,500 but broadly this is the zone of support that people are talking about. I think one attempt to buy here will certainly happen because the market has lost quite a bit of ground quite quickly. Unless in the next few days global markets tank swiftly which is difficult to predict, I think around these levels you might stop once and then have a bit of a bounce. The problem with bounce backs is that they are not lasting beyond the day. They give you the illusion that they are bouncing back but by the end of the day you close at the lows which his not a great sign. In terms of valuations can you loose a few hundred points on the Nifty and still not look ridiculously cheap, absolutely yes. So it’s difficult to put a finger on where the Nifty will stop falling.

The big question for everybody is that at this level say 4,600 mean do you start buying once again because the Nifty is off 600 points form its peak or if you do that you will actually rue it one month down the line because the Nifty is given you another 500-600 points on the way down, its not an easy question to newer and it will lead to a bit of heartburn in the near-term because it might go to 4,600 then go back to 4,800-4,900 and you may feel you have missed the opportunity and then fall again.

So I don’t know whether it will be a straight line fall. These are very difficult to time as you have seen for the last few days but I won’t be surprised myself if the Nifty actually drifts down lower than the levels you are hearing right now, just fundamentally speaking.