13K - the dream comeback! What lies ahead?

Excerpts from Markets Midday on CNBC-TV18 Watch the full show » ALSO READ See what other CNBC-TV18 anchors have to say Nifty BSE | NSE 10/02/12 Are Mutual Funds betting on Nifty? Other Stocks in this news Dr Reddys Laboratories | Reliance Industries | ICICI Bank |

What a comeback it's been this year - from the depression of May and June to come back and hit 13,000 is just completely amazing. One can't ask for better this year.

From 9,000 to 10,000 to 11,000 to 12,000 - it's been one smooth move up. From 12,000-12,600, we fell back to below 9,000, but the second coming has taken us to 13,000, which makes it a perhaps a more special thousand that the Index has crossed.

In May-June-July, virtually nobody would have given this market a new high. So it's a story of comeback this 13,000 and it erased that unlucky memory of May and June. So it's probably the most special thousand-point peak that we have conquered in that journey from 8,000 odd to current levels.

Reaching new highs - Then and now

If you are an institutional guy then it is a dream comeback. That coin has two sides. While it is fantastic that this market has had phenomenal leadership in getting back to 13,000, in a sense, the small guys have just now lived up to the expectation. And in that sense, this 1,000-point rally is a bit inferior in quality for a lot of people in the market.

Those who don't have positions in the market look at interesting levels and which stocks had led it, but for people in the market it is all about making money and in this run to 13,000 probably people have made less money than they made from 9,000 to 10,000, 10,000 to 11,000 and 11,000 to 12,000.

This time around the market has not had such great breadth as it had in the rally from 9,000 to 12,000 the last time it moved up. More people perhaps made money then and fewer people perhaps have made money now in this comeback to 13,000.

The midcaps and smallcaps, in many cases, have not got back to new highs but the narrower market, which represents a large part of the marketcap has gone up led by the stocks like Dr Reddy's , ICICI , Bharti , Reliance etc.

They have been the stand out winners. But at 13,000 one wishes that the smallcaps and midcaps had also moved up in which case people would have been celebrating more.

The triggers

 

The ability of the market to cross 13,000 sustainably and stay above that has probably more to do with momentum, sentiment and liquidity in the near-term rather than better than expected earnings numbers and interest rates being on a pause. All those are fundamental underpinnings to the market as we all know and understand.

 

But in the near- term it's all about whether the bulls have the upper hand- and the bulls do have the upper hand. Who would have said this morning walking in that we would scale 13,000 today?

 

But that's been the way of the market. Global markets are sulking, the US has fears of going into recession, all other Asian markets have not been able to deal with that but we have come out blinked for about half an hour in the morning and then gone on to hit the 13,000 level.

 

Doing that, the Nifty is also getting very close to its all time high. With the kind of strength the bulls have at this point in time, they are just not letting it go. The bears are not in play at this point.

 

What next?...

 

The big answer to whether we can go to 13,500 next probably lies in whether the bulls will give up, whether they are feeling good, whether sentiment is strong, whether F&O build-ups and whether we can get some good liquidity support from the institutional hands. In the near term probably those technical are more important, while the fundamental underpinnings remain as important as they always are.