Moneycontrol » News » Stocks » Expert Advice

See Nifty in 4150-4650 range post Budget: Ashwani Gujaral

Published on Mon, Jun 29, 2009 at 09:37 | Source : CNBC-TV18

Updated at Mon, Jun 29, 2009 at 14:07

119795 Investors following Unitech. Share this News with them.

Share on Tumblr

Excerpts from Bazaar on CNBC-TV18 Watch the full show »

ALSO READ

Nifty

BSE | NSE 10/02/12

Are Mutual Funds betting on Nifty?

Other Stocks in this news

Technical Analyst Ashwani Gujaral said sees the Nifty trading in a 4,150-4,650 range post Budget. "The most likely scenario is whatever happens in the Budget, we do not break 4,150 on the downside and 4,650 on the upside. We may find that after all is said and done we may still be in the same range because I do not believe that the market can continue to move at the pace it was moving at for the last three months."

Also see: 'New sectors will have to emerge for another bull run'

Here is a verbatim transcript of the exclusive interview with Ashwani Gujral on CNBC-TV18. Also see the accompanying video.

Q: Which way does the trading direction blow after Friday's close?

A: We tried to break the lower end of the range and failed, so now we are in a kind of an uptrend. But the most likely scenario is whatever the Budget does, we do not break 4,150 on the downside and 4,650 on the upside. We may find that after all is said and done we may still be in the same range because I do not believe that the market can continue to move at the pace it was moving at for the last three months. So, this range is the best odd scenario.

Q: How do you trade within this range now? Do you trade with a long bias or short bias or forget the Nifty and just focus on stocks?

A: If the market is coming down from 4,650 you take short trades. Right now, we tested 4,150. Now, we are heading upwards, so now you try to pick out the Budgetary type of sectors like education, infrastructure, low cost housing, rural sectors or things which have something to do with the Budget. Looking at global cues, your largecap indices will not move in a hurry. So, today the Nifty support is around 4,200-4,220 and on the upside stiff resistance comes in around 4,450 and then 4,510. Only if we cross 4,510 do we get to challenge 4,650.

Q: How are the charts looking for IFCI and Unitech ?

A: Rs 72 is the key support for Unitech. Now, it could move towards Rs 104. Once it takes out Rs 104, then you are looking at Rs 125-130. IFCI is still in a sideways kind of range. I think Rs 45 is key support here. It needs to get past Rs 60 to get into some sort of upward momentum which may take it up to Rs 75. But I think Unitech and the other real estate stocks have started a fresh move on Friday, something like HDIL.

Q: Two more stocks which did not have great session last week Sun Pharma and Nalco ?

A: Sun Pharma is in this range of Rs 1000-1050 on the downside and Rs 1400 on the upside. Something always goes wrong at Rs 1400 and the stock crashes to Rs 1000-1050. Once it gets to that region it is obviously a buy.

Nalco has corrected quite sharply. It did not participate in the metals rally on Friday, so we would be looking to buy it once it gets past Rs 314 for a target of about Rs 360. It is quite beaten up so you have Rs 10 downside probably.

Q: Chart check on HDIL and IVRCL ?

A: HDIL now has support around Rs 225. It has really taken out its previous intermediate top. Chances are that it could head up to Rs 327.

It is very important that IVRCL gets past Rs 380. Once it can do that, we are basically looking at another 80-100 point move on IVRCL.

Q: Do you track Bartronics from last week?

A: Bartronics is not something I look at.

Q: DCB

A: Private banks like Bank of Rajasthan, DCB have come back. DCB has support around Rs 34. Once it takes out Rs 44, it could head up to Rs 49. All of these stocks have corrected quite sharply and now are showing strength on the upside.

Q: How do you trade Suzlon from Rs 116 onwards?

A: Suzlon has good support at around Rs 110. Once this news has given you a dip, you probably would buy this dip. Keep a Rs 110 kind of a stop and you could see levels of Rs 128 because people were kind of ready for bad results. It has been in a strong uptrend, The news may not be able to end the uptrend and once we can take out Rs 128, Rs 140-145 is also possible.

Disclaimer: It is safe to assume that my clients and I may have an investment interest in the stocks or sectors discussed.