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Technical Analyst Ashwani Gujral sees the Nifty trading in a 3,900-4,500 range going forward. He does not rule out a 40%-50% rally in midcaps.
Here is a verbatim transcript of the exclusive interview with Ashwani Gujral on CNBC-TV18. Also see the accompanying video.
Q: Is the correction over for the Nifty?
A: The correction is over in the sense that the downside is not there beyond 3,900 now, but it will continue and you will get into a range of maybe 3,900 to 4,500. 4,500 was the peak we made on Budget day. So things really change if 4,500 is taken out. The problem is if a ball is thrown hard at the floor, it tends to bounce up quite a bit. So, you are seeing this sort of big upmove because everybody went short, everybody had the same view. If you have been around this market from 4,050, probably today is a good time to take some money off. Midcaps will continue to run. They had fallen 40-50% from the upside, so easily 40-50% rally from the downside is possible.
Q: How are stocks like Lanco, Reliance Power, Jaiprakash Hydro looking technically after yesterday’s rally?
A: Lanco Infratech had support around Rs 340. It tends to fall sharply and rallies back equally sharply. It is probably looking the strongest of the infrastructure stocks. It has probably got resistance now at Rs 452.
Jaiprakash Hydro again is finding strong support at Rs 65. The next level here is Rs 86 where it runs into resistance. If it can take that out, then it will head into the 90s probably Rs 95.
For Reliance Power, Rs 143 is strong support. Within a couple of days, you could find it around Rs 180. All these power stocks are looking good.
PFC is particularly looking good because that is almost at the verge of taking out its previous intermediate high. So, a lot of these power, power ancillary stocks would lead this upmove.
Q: How do shipping stocks like Mercator Lines, Essar Shipping look on your charts?
A: For Mercator Lines, Rs 50 is a strong support. It came back from around Rs 45 and it could head towards Rs 65.
After its correction, Shipping Corporation seems to be looking good. Some divestment stories are in air. If it can get past Rs 135, Rs 150-155 is there. Divestment plays like Neyveli Lignite, SCI, all of the stocks which have bit of public sector angle to them should be doing well.
Q: At nearly 4,300, would you stay long, would you take profits? How would you approach the Nifty?
A: Definitely on a third up day, you need to be taking profits. The buyers are probably in by now. Maybe this move will pause here. So, if you entered early, you need to take profits.
It is important to understand that this is not a trend which will lead you to 5,000-5,100, but really a volatile consolidation within a range, If you are getting profits, you probably take them and look to enter at lower levels.
Q: What do you do with some of these high flying stocks like IDFC, Mercator Lines in the last few days?
A: You take money off because they have had 10-12-15% moves. Such moves you need to be able to take profits. Surely, they fell a lot from the highs. But the rally in the last couple of days and even today, have been quite sharp. Overall, if you are a portfolio type investor and bought around 3,900-4,000, you, you could probably hold on. So, longer-term people can hold on but futures traders should take large gains when they happen.
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Today's Special Column
with Ashok Gulati
International Food Policy Research Institute , Director in Asia


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