Here is a verbatim of the exclusive interview with Ashwani Gujral on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video.

Q:  Has there been a decisive breakdown in the Nifty in the last few days?

A: People are blaming the budget for the fall and if budget would have been good the market would have gone up. This market had run its course. Even if it was a great budget, it had everything the market wanted, the market would have gone up 150 points, probably would not have fallen as sharply but it would have come down to 4,100 maybe next week. So it has got nothing to do with the budget. Global markets had toped out, our market was topping out so today the expectation should be that we make a lower low than 4,060 and then have a pullback rally to about 4,180–4,200 which is the 50 DMA but finally we will go down and retest 3,500–3,600 kind of levels because the market gives maximum pain to the maximum number of people before it turns direction. I think everybody who bought in the last one and a half months is going to lose money before this thing turns around.  

Q: The stocks which fell-off quite a bit yesterday were some of the real estate names. How are they––Unitech, DLF, HDIL––looking technically to you?

A: They are looking quite bad and outperforming the market even on the downside. These stocks they went four times. They are likely to fall to about 50% of where they went up. DLF support now comes in around Rs 250–260, it has got resistance at Rs 325. Unitech could actually fall to between Rs 53 and Rs 57. It has got resistance at around Rs 76. HDIL the next support here is around Rs 166, it has got resistance at Rs 223. Basically, commodities, banking, infrastructure and real estate are going to get hammered if the market goes below 4,000. The places that you have to be in are Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG), autos, oil marketing companies, such kind of defensive spaces would do well over the next one month.

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