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Mitesh Thacker, Technical Analyst, miteshthacker.com, advises investors to buy ACC, BHEL, Reliance Capital, and Tata Steel. He says traders can short Tech Mahindra.
Here are the key levels to watch out for...
On Tata Steel:
I think that in the yesterday’s fall, lot of stocks got extremely oversold and probably ready for a bounce back on positive global cues. Support level for Tata Steel is close to around Rs 435 per share and now it can bounce back to levels of around Rs 464 a share and Rs 472 a share.
On Reliance Capital:
There are a couple of stocks which are now very close to their 200 day moving average and Reliance Capital is one of them. These stocks have fallen heavily over the last five-six trading session and are extremely oversold. We have got trading of three-four of their daily relative strength index (RSI). So it looks like a good stock to buy at a support level. Buy at current price with the stop loss of around Rs 677 a share. On the upside, the stock can test levels of Rs 725740.
On Tech Mahindra:
IT is a very peculiar case. We have seen the sector outperform the markets and with the short-term fall happening in the indices as well as some minor fall in the IT stocks. The short-term outlook is weakening, so probably next sector, which after this pullback can correct significantly or at least in the much more deeper ways is probably IT. On a bounce back like today when we get a gap up opening, I think Tech Mahindra would be a good short. It’s broken below a triangle pattern. Rs 902–910 per share would be a good range to short with a stop loss of Rs 936. Look for targets of around Rs 860 a share and below on this stock.
On ACC:
Another stock which is right at its 200 day moving average, which is at Rs 700 a share, another oversold stock. So probably it is ready for a bounce back. The upside levels are Rs 740–755 and I would suggest a stop loss of around Rs 684 a share on this stock.
On BHEL:
This has been an index heavyweight and is also very close to its support levels of around Rs 2,150 per share. It is a good support level on daily closing charts. I think once again if the market moves up this will participate as well as contribute to the upside in the markets. On the upside, Rs 2,225–2,250 a share would be a good level. Will get a gap up opening but in case there are any intraday dips or the margin pressures continues, these are the good stocks to take long positions into.
Here is a verbatim transcript of the exclusive interview with Mitesh Thacker on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video.
Q: What is your view on Suzlon and Reliance Communications––both down 30% in seven days?
A: Both are extremely oversold. This is the first time that we are seeing oversold, which we did not even see on price charts when the October 2008 fall happened, so likely to bounce back. In fact we are seeing renew of around 2.5 on relative strength index (RSI) and the indicator cannot go below zero, so it’s extremely oversold. However, I would not bet on any uptrend starting. After this kind of fall what you can get is some kind of short covering. Yesterday we saw the open interest going down in Suzlon, so probably the market also realises that the stock is ready for some kind of a bounce back. Rs 65 to 70 a share would be a good range to get out of the stock and then it will go into a slowly declining mode.
Q: How much of a rebound are you expecting in terms of a target for the Nifty and at what point as a trader would you consider opening a short again because that’s the trade, which has worked in the last few days, shorting the recoveries?
A: It’s very difficult. That’s one question which everybody would like to know as what is the level of exit on the upside. However, looking at the charts and the fall in the last few days, few important price points on the upside, one would be around 4,700 that is where the short-term average is on the hourly and two hourly charts are placed. I think 4,700 looks likely over one-two days if the global markets can sustain for till tomorrow evening. Once that is crossed probably you can look for a slightly bigger bounce back to levels at around 4,840. But we are not betting on markets staying above 4,800 levels for long and even if we get a bounce back slightly larger than what we expect because the undertone has definitely turned on the negative side. So anything above 4,750–4,800 could be used to exit in case there are any longs left in the system and take some kind of bearish positions on the market.
Q: Would you buy any of the Indiabulls’ stocks now?
A: Not really, in fact while high beta is a good strategy to hold in, in the market, which is a bull market or at least in a short to medium-term uptrend. This volatility will go up in this kind of market and high beta may not serve your purpose well. What you can do is cut down on your overall exposure or quality of trade and then look for trading with a smaller stop loss and make multiple amount of trades, so that will be good strategy. Trade anything which is largecap and which is close to its big support levels, weekly or monthly support level.
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