![]() Markets to trade between 2900-3080: Sudarshan SukhaniPublished on Wed, Jul 19, 2006 at 09:57 | Source : Moneycontrol.com Updated at Wed, Jul 19, 2006 at 12:53
Technical analyst Sudarshan Sukhani believes that the markets have had a conclusive break. He looks at the market trading within a range of 2900 to 3080.Further, he adds that at higher levels he will be looking out for sell signals for some weakness to come in. Excerpts from CNBC-TV18's exclusive interview with technical analyst Sudarshan Sukhani Q: What is your take now. We broke 3000 for a bit yesterday, we closed below that. Do you think it is a conclusive break or we can bounce and hold that level? A: I think it is a conclusive break. It is a different question that we could easily bounce today, but now we are sliding down. So I am looking at the trading range that will now develop between 2900 and 3080 which does mean irrespective of what we do today at some point of time in next few days, we could slide down to 2900. Q: If we get a bit of a bounce this morning would you be more prone to shorting that bounce to ride it to 2900. Has there been a shift in your trading strategy therefore now? A: That is true, the exact time of setting up a short position would be a question of tactics, it is not easy to predict in advance. But at higher levels I would be looking out for sell signals for some weakness to come in and ride the bounce lower down. The relief rally that we were seeing from 2600 to 3200, that part is over Q: If the market does indeed break that range as you pointed out, will it have set out a clear intermediate trend for itself? A: The intermediate trend is that we are in a correction. There was some suggestion that we were seeing a rally and maybe the correction is over. Now the breaking of that small trading range tells me that the correction is not over and to that extent, yes, the intermediate trend is now clearly evident. We are again moving down completing that correction of that weak bull market. Q: What would you do with autos and metals, technically? A: I have been a little bearish on metals earlier, and that view continues. Metals are likely to underperform. Its better for investors to simply shun this sector, traders should sell and professional traders should go short in this sector. Maruti Udyog , Mahindra and Mahindra and Tata Motors , are all in a trading range; they haven't broken down from that. The approach should be to buy on dips and then take small profits. I would not go short in the auto sector. Q: Have you had a look at some of these midcap construction stocks, Nagarjuna Constructions or Era Constructions? A: I saw Era Constructions chart; first it went up because there was a new issue, and then it fell down, six-seven downside circuits. It is not a share that one would like to own. I will stay away from this share. Q: What would you do as a trader? You started at 3030, is it good enough for you to short or would you wait for a few more minutes? A: I would wait for much more than a few minutes. The market has opened up and let it go up. It has to show some signs of weakness but tendency would still be to look for shorting opportunities. I would not go long just now. Q: Couple of cement stocks ACC and Gujarat Ambuja Cements in specific? A: Grasim Industries has gone up and broken out of the resistance. ACC is in a range, it has not broken down, Grasim has broken out, Gujarat Ambuja remains in a range just inching above Rs 100-102 now. So cement stocks give us a message that they are not going down with the market. I do not think that they are going to move up if the broad market goes down, but certainly they will move up first, whenever the markets turn around. Q: The market is picking up a bit, how much longer do you wait and watch before you take a trading call on the Nifty today? A: Today itself, if this market sustains its opening gap, then a day trading opportunity is only to go long, irrespective of what the slightly longer-term framework is. But my idea would be not to take that day trade, wait patiently for the rally to complete its path and then look to sell, or else buy puts. Q: What is the end game for this move. Do you think it will stop at 2900? If the view is turned bearish for you, do you think we are headed back to test those levels of 2600 where we bounced from to begin with, that big pullback move where it happened? A: That is a difficult question to answer; with the way the market is shaping up, a lot of midcaps are breaking down, slowly but steadily. It's the largecaps, which are holding up the Index and there is a sense of pessimism all around. So I am assuming that this pessimism will go to its extreme and 2900 maybe broken and we could go close to 2600, which we will test. Then we will see what happens. Disclosers: I have some midcap stocks Reliance Capital , ITC that is all.
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