Go short if Nifty does not hold 4075: Mitesh Thacker

Published on Tue, Jul 14, 2009 at 10:17 |  Source : CNBC-TV18

Updated at Wed, Jul 15, 2009 at 08:51  

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Mitesh Thacker, Technical Analyst, miteshthacker.com

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Q: What do you have to say on Bajaj Hindusthan and Balrampur Chini? A: On Bajaj Hindusthan , we were debating yesterday whether we should initiate long positions at this stock currently. I think Rs 125-122 is a big support area and the stock is definitely quite oversold. So at Rs 130 it looks safe to start accumulating the stock. On the upside on a bounce, we are looking at a target of around Rs 150-155.

Balrampur Chini yesterday gave a good breakdown, so around Rs 99-100, if anybody is carrying long, would be good time to get out and probably even take shorts around Rs 99-100 levels.

Q: Two infrastructure stocks--SREI Infra and Jaiprakash Hydro?

A: I don't track SREI . For Jaiprakash Hydro, Rs 78-77 was a key support and last Friday we saw the stock breaking below that. In fact, on the upside we saw multiple tops being formed in the range of Rs 94-96. So I think on that Rs 18-20 range has put lot of pressure on the stock and we may be not yet done with the entire target being achieved. On the downside maybe Rs 64-62 is a good level where the stock can probably hit. Today's rise and probably if it continues till tomorrow, I think around Rs 76-75, I would advice looking at that some kind of weakness emerging in the stocks and probably be willing to bet on the short side of course with a stop loss just above Rs 79.

Q: What about the textile counters-- Alok Industries , Arvind , S Kumars ? A: They have been falling left, right and centre. In fact, they have fallen more than 30-40% over the past fortnight or so. We might get a bounce back along with the market but nothing much is happening over there. There is no possibility of a long-term upside or any good uptrend starting, just trading bounce if it happens.

Q: What will you do if you start with a 50-60 point gap up on the Nifty today?
A: As I said yesterday, the theme was for looking at stocks which are very over sold and which were making multiple bottoms in a price range. I think Reliance Infra was one we had identified, around Rs 950-955 we saw the stock make multiple bottoms. So we will probably go long on that kind of stock. So carry your long positions if you have taken anything yesterday.

Q: How would you trade some of these banks-- ICICI Bank , Axis Bank , HDFC ?

A: We are not very clear on the banking side but what is happening with the price charts is that it has seen a good rangebound moment. In Axis Bank we have seen it holding on to strong support level of Rs 700 yesterday, with good numbers it bounced back nicely. On the upside, Rs 800-820 is the first level where you can see supply emerge.

Similarly ICICI Bank, if it stays above Rs 665 for the day, can probably hit Rs 690 or even Rs 740. So it will be a short-term trade if you are taking on the private sector banks.

On the public sector banks what has very clearly happened is that they have been sold-off very nicely over the last couple of weeks and I think what they will attempt is a kind of bounceback. Look for weakness in the public sector banks in a day or two; they could again be fresh shorting candidates.

Q: Aban Offshore or IDFC ?

A: Aban Offshore and IDFC both have closed yesterday on a very good support level, Aban at Rs 640. If you recall before the fall which happened in the quarter of January to March, Rs 640 was a big support for the stock price. We saw three-four bottoms being formed there then the stock went down to as low as Rs 250 and from there to Rs 1,200. Yesterday again, it closed at Rs 640. If it is able to hold this closing for a day or two and probably give some kind of intra day reversal, the stock could give a good bounceback and Rs 740-750 could be a good short-term target.

Similarly, IDFC while the medium-term outlook remains weak, Rs 116-117 is a good closing support on daily price chart. So I think a bounceback to Rs 127-128 could happen and then the stock price could fall. If it breaks below Rs 116 in a day or two, I will be willing to take another short bet on this stock.

  

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