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4200 Nifty crucial for uptrend to go on: Sudarshan Sukhani
Published on Wed, Jul 01, 2009 at 10:42   |  Updated at Wed, Jul 01, 2009 at 20:17  |  Source : CNBC-TV18

Sudarshan Sukhani of Technical Trends was surprised with the performance of the market yesterday. Technically, yesterday’s move was not expected, he said.


However, he is of the opinion that the trend is still up. According to him, if the Nifty were to go below 4,200, the intermediate uptrend is over.

Here is a verbatim transcript of the exclusive interview with Sudarshan Sukhani on CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video.

Q: How did you read yesterday’s fall technically speaking?

A: It was a big surprise because, on Friday, we had a confirmed breakout on the upside. A basing pattern was made and then we said, “Okay, 4,320-4,330 has been taken out and the market is likely to move to 4,500.” So yesterday’s move, technically, was not expected. Of course, after the event, it is easy to analyse but I was taken by surprise.

The key questions are what is the trend? The trend is up. I don’t think I have any doubts about it at least not yet. What is the point at which I would say that the intermediate uptrend is over? That remains 4,200. If the Nifty were to go below that, it would break down below significant support.

And, the third question is, is the correction over? We saw a low made last week on June 23, when the Nifty went briefly below 4,200. So far the index is trading above that level. We have to assume that the correction is over and at some point, the uptrend will go up. We are in a trading range, it is not easy. It could go either ways.

Q: What about GMR and Suzlon, technically, after yesterday’s fall?

A: Yes big declines. Suzlon has support around Rs 95-100. Momentum stocks don’t obey these support levels if the market decides to slide down. They outperform on the upside as well as on the downside. So the view should be on the Nifty. However, if the Nifty holds the support, then Suzlon is close to its own independent support level, where at least momentum buying is justified if it starts going up.

The same applies to GMR Infra. It has been an outperformer. It is likely to outperform in a stable or rising market and it will fall more in a declining market. Have a call on the Nifty; if you are bullish on it, I think these two are buying opportunities for momentum traders on signs of stability.

Q: Had a look at Tata Motors and the way it has come off these last couple of days?

A: Yes, I am not surprised. It was never my favourite stock. This stock had rallied far more than it was justified by charts, and eventually, it had literally become a momentum stock because it was not being backed by all the fundamentals that you talk about on CNBC-TV18. That has now come back. I think Tata Motors and most of the stocks in that group, including Tata Steel, are best to stay away from now.

Q: Would you say the same for Bajaj Hindustan?

A: I think so. Although the market is not responding, but the way sugar has been going up, it is just one day decline, and earlier, we saw those big rallies. But at this point, one needs to be careful about buying in sugar. One should not think that momentum stocks cannot come down. We know that they do, so I would be completely away from sugar.

Q: What do you think about Idea and Suzlon?

A: Suzlon has corrected mainly because it is a momentum stock. It outperformed on the upside. If the Nifty falls, it is going to move down more than we expect. There is significant support in the charts at Rs 95-100. If the Nifty stabilises at current levels, then there is a momentum buying opportunity and a short-term trading opportunity on the long side in Suzlon.

Idea has been an outperformer earlier. I would say the same for Idea. We can divide the universe in two stocks, good stocks and the stocks one should stay away from. The Tata stocks, the real estate stocks one should stay away from them.

Q: Do you think the Nifty will be successful in its attempt to stay above 4,300 today?

A: I wouldn’t know that. That is a difficult call to make. The trading strategy is ‘don’t trade anything in the morning’. If by afternoon you see that the Nifty is successfully holding above 4,300, then try to buy on a small dip or a consolidation. I don’t think the first few hours will offer any opportunity.

Q: What would you do with Hindalco at Rs 85?

A: I am not downbeat on metals as a sector, ferrous, non-ferrous everything. Hindalco is not a buying opportunity because it has not come to its support levels, which are far lower at Rs 60-65. If the Nifty slides even a little bit more and breaks 4,200, all of these stocks will come there—Rs 65 for Hindalco, around Rs 300 for Tata Steel, so there is no investing and there is no momentum buying either.

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