For the first time, North India does not have a political giant. Modi’s dominance of Indian politics has been made possible, in part, due to the absence of a powerhouse politician from the Hindi speaking belt.
India is the only significant democracy in the world with First Past the Post (FPTP) elections in which a multitude of parties feature. In the rest of the world, democracies:
There are other storm clouds as well building up as well, which Mukherjea feels the markets could be underestimating.
The S&P BSE Sensex, which is trading at a price-to-equity ratio of 21.99x and a price to book of 2.92, hit a fresh record high of 30,712.35 last week. The valuations have moved beyond the comfort levels and even foreign investors are placing their bets on speculative stocks, Saurabh Mukherjea, of Ambit Capital said in an interview with CNBC-TV18.
The euphoria is hard to miss but there's another factor that investors should not ignore - hope.
Recovery in PSU banks will be dependent on credit growth which in turn is dependent on economic recovery.
Saurabh Mukherjea, CEO, Ambit Capital believes the economic weakness and the rally against is making it uncomfortable to chase the rally. He believes IT and pharma have a few stocks with attractive valuations even if both the sectors are seeing some pressure.
India is staring at an imminent jobs crisis as three leading service sectors â€” which have been engines of job creation for two decades now â€” get ready to shed jobs by the tens of thousands, each driven by its own dynamic.
The market continues to inch up relentlessly with support from domestic fund flows, but Saurabh Mukherjea of Ambit Capital is circumspect considering the visible underlying macro weakness.
Prevailing conditions aren‘t conducive for a big rally in the markets in the short term, Saurabh Mukherjea told CNBC-TV18. The brokerage house had in November scrapped its FY17 Sensex target of 29,500 in view of the government‘s demonetisation drive. Ambit Capital‘s FY18 Sensex target stands at 29,000.
Saurabh Mukherjea of Ambit Capital shook the world when he said it is a contracting gross domestic product (GDP) for the current year and now he says the evidence that emerged in the last few days validates the point that the economy is under pressure.
Speaking to CNBC-TV18 Saurabh Mukherjea of Ambit Capital said that we have been accused of saying a lot of things that are thought of as sensational but facts and subsequent events have borne them out.
Ambit, in a report, has pegged the GDP growth rate for the second half of this year at a mere 0.5 percent. It has also cut its FY18 GDP growth guidance to 5.8 percent from 7.3 percent.
Speaking to CNBC-TV18 on the sidelines of Ambit India Access Conference, Mukherjea said that there‘s a consistent pushback from investors that Indian stocks are aggressively priced. â€œWe need to see some pullback from Indian market to see FII money aggressively into India,â€ he said.
Consumer demand in the three months to November is likely to be meaningfully better than the corresponding period of last year on account of abundant provisioning for loans and consumer appetite for purchasing goods, said Saurabh Mukherjea of Ambit Capital investments.
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â€œThere is no economic pick-up as such in the domestic market,â€ says Saurabh Mukherjea, CEO - Institutional Equities at Ambit Capital adding that no up move is expected in next six months.
To find out what lies behind the seven decades of continued excellence at Asian Paints, watch Jalaj Dani's interview with Latha Venkatesh on CNBC-TV18.
Saurabh Mukherjea, CEO-institutional equities of Ambit Capital, maintains his Sensex year-end target at 29,500.
Saurabh Mukherjea, author of the book 'The Unusual Billionaires' feels the buy-and-hold approach to investing holds true even as volatile financial markets and disruptive changes across sectors are questioning its validity
The problem according to Saurabh Mukherjea of Ambit Capital is that two developmentsâ€”negative interest rates and negative inflation-- are striking at the heart of the premise that the entire banking system is built on
Better than expected quarterly corporate earnings, signs of a turnaround in the economy and the positive mood in global markets had lifted equity benchmarks to seven-month highs earlier this month.
The market will quickly try to suss out if the new person has the spine to stand up to New Delhi, and if he doesn‘t, the rupee will bear the consequence, says Ambit's Saurabh Mukherjea
With the Sensex breaking below 23,000, Saurabh Mukherjea of Ambit Capital is continuing to stick with his 22,000 call but says the occurrence of three events will make him call a likely bottom to the market.
â€œThe potent combination of a slowing economy with gradual deterioration in banking system makes it inevitable that we will run into serious challenges over the course of CY16,â€ Saurabh Mukherjea, CEO-Institutional Equities says.