Inflation numbers, progress of monsoon rains and key global developments, including the US Fed meeting, will lay the pitch for the stock market movement this week, say analysts.
Motilal Oswal has come out with its report on Cement sector. The research firm has estimated cement prices to improve by ~INR13/20/20 per bag in FY15/16/17. In large-caps Emkay has preferred ACC, UltraTech and Shree Cement, whereas in mid-caps preferred Dalmia Bharat, JK Cement and JK Lakshmi Cement.
Citi is maintaining its view of an extended pause on policy rates. They believe that IIP is likely to see improving trends and that headline CPI could remain elevated in the near term.
Experts believe investors will remain cautious ahead of RBI monetary policy and Federal Reserve meeting next week. They continue to expect rangebound movement with a negative bias till these events take place.
IIP: The output of consumption-oriented industries is expected to pick-up in the second half of 2013-14 due to higher rural incomes, on the back of a good monsoon and consequent high agricultural production, says CRISIL Research.
Economists and market experts believe that the sharp fall in the IIP data was on the back of correction in the capital goods data. However, they expect a revival in the second half of the year.
Experts feel the market may go upto 6100-6200 on the Nifty in near term, tracking current environment and then may see a correction. Overall it may remain rangebound till elections in 2014, experts add.
Reliance Industries, chairman Mukesh Ambani at the Giants International 41st anniversary celebrations, said that India needs a positive and inclusive mindset. He expressed confidence that despite all the negativity India will become a major power.
Despite a surprising IIP jumping to 2.6 percent, Leif Eskesen is not very hopeful of a revival in the economy. He feels that low domestic demand is a cause of worry for India.
Industrial GDP is likely to have grown at less than 0.5% in the first quarter of this fiscal. Even if one accounts for a normal monsoon and relatively resilient service sector, first quarter GDP growth is almost certain to be below 5.0% cent in 2013-14, says CRISIL Research.
The economy is already turning, and there could be more interest rate cuts to come, feels Saurabh Mukherjea, head of equities at Ambit Capital. He does not expect the Nifty to fall below 5500, which has been a strong support level for the past 5-6 years.
According to a report by Sharekhan, the opening of the Dalal Street is going to be on a positive note led by positive Asian cues. SGX Nifty is also trading 18.50 points higher. Investors may remain cautious ahead of major economic events like IIP data which may give direction to the markets.
CRISIL Research has come out with its report on IIP data for September 2012. According to the research firm, Industrial weakness therefore is expected to continue in the near term and industrial output growth in 2012-13 appears to be heading towards a performance which will be even worse than the last fiscal.
Robert Prior-Wandesforde, economist, India and Southeast Asia, Credit Suisse explains to CNBC-TV18 that he expects the IIP data to reveal an upside surprise and estimates that Consumer Price Inflation will fall and that will induce the RBI to cut rates in January.
Terming the 5.5% GDP growth as "good news", Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia today expressed confidence that economy would rebound in subsequent quarters.
Buckle up, because experts believe we may be headed into some rough weather.
Stock analyst SP Tulsian of sptulsian.com explains to CNBC-TV18 that the latest IIP data reveals a very disappointing scenario. He is also very bullish on Sesa Sterlite, a merged entity from the Vedanta Group.
While analysts expected the June Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data, to be around 1%, it was well below expectations and was reported to be -1.8%. Indranil Sengupta, Chief Economist India at BofA ML too believed the number was going to be 1%, down from last month's 2.4%.
CRISIL Research has come out with its report on private sector. According to the research fir, investment in the infrastructure sector is expected to decline by 6%, capex in industrial/services sectors is expected to fall by an even sharper 10%.
Equity benchmarks declined week-on-week as concerns over deficient monsoon, weak earnings and a fluid global market kept buyers on the backfoot. The BSE Sensex shed 208 points over last week to close at 17,213.70, and the Nifty fell 90 points to close at 5,227.25.
CRISIL Research has come out with its report on IIP data. According to the research firm, industrial output growth is expected to remain weak in the near term.
According to Pronab Sen of the Planning Commission, the Reserve Bank will not be encouraged to make any dramatic announcements in its upcoming monetary policy review in July.
Leif Eskesen, Chief Economist for India and ASEAN, HSBC estimated India's index of industrial output or the IIP numbers to be 3.6%. However, beating expectations, industrial output grew at 2.4% in May 2012. He also estimates inflation for June at 7.6%.
India's industrial production grew at a higher-than-expected pace of 2.4% in May driven by manufacturing output, government data showed on Thursday.
With Infosys and TCS expected to announce their earnings today, along with the IIP number for May, it is going to be an action packed day for the Indian market.