CNBC-TV18’s Sapna Das caught up with KK Modi of Godfrey Phillips India who expects a 3-4 percent decline in cigarette volumes by the end of this year.
ITC which holds a weightage of 7.2 percent in Sensex was the biggest contributor for the declines in the index.
The institute, a body representing interests of legal cigarette makers such as ITC, Godfrey Philips and VST, also said the government must also consider the plight of distressed tobacco farmers.
Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Roy said the rate of cess decided upon tobacco products at Rs 4,170 per 1,000 sticks or 290 percent ad valorem and a cess on pan masala at 135 percent ad valorem is the highest cap proposed and that the actual rate of cess levied can be lower.
ITC is in the process of hiking prices of some of its cigarette brands. Distributors and dealers claim that the new packs with higher prices will hit the market in a few days. In the premium category (Classic) the price hike is 13 percent.
Cigarette maker Godfrey Phillips India today reported an over three-fold jump in its standalone net profit at Rs 38.44 crore for the third quarter ended December 31, 2016.
Cigarette major ITC shares hit record high of Rs 269.50, up 4.5 percent intraday Wednesday as excise duty hike was within the analysts' expectations limit.
ITC's December quarter has beaten estimates with net profit rising 5.7 percent to Rs 2650 crore from Rs 2504 crore in corresponding quarter last fiscal. During the quarter, its total income also grew marginally by 5 percent to Rs 13570 crore compared to Rs 12962 crore on annual basis.
Analysts polled by CNBC-TV18 expect 2-3 percent decline in cigarette volumes. They say demonetisation impact may be limited on cigarette Volumes due to inelastic demand. The company raised prices on 30 percent of cigarette portfolio by 14-15 percent in second half of December.
Deutsche Bank believes price hike poses risk to short-term value growth trajectory for ITC‘s cigarettes. Earlier in 2014/15 when price-point of Gold Flake Kings (premium cigarettes of 84mm length) reached and crossed Rs 10 per stick it did result in a volume deceleration and decline.
BAT, which already owned 42 percent of Reynolds, will pay USD 29.44 in cash and 0.5260 BAT shares for each Reynolds share, it said, a 26 percent premium over the price of the stock on Oct. 20, the day before its first offer was made public.
Diversified conglomerate ITC Ltd was the top gainer in the trade today and was up 3 percent. The stock went up on the back of 14-15 percent price hike in two of its product offerings that is 69 mm cigarettes and 74 mm cigarettes.
The Sensex was up 406.34 points or 1.6 percent at 26213.44 and the Nifty ended up 124.60 points or 1.6 percent at 8032.85. About 1679 shares advanced, 862 shares declined, and 193 shares were unchanged.
Cigarette stocks are rallying with ITC up 3 percent. Tata Steel, Adani Ports, Lupin and Cipla are other gainers while GAIL, Hero MotoCorp, HDFC, Bharti Airtel and ONGC are losers in the Sensex.
Underlining the regulatory pressures facing the tobacco industry, a British court also on Wednesday rejected an appeal against new rules prohibiting the use of marketing such as logos or colours on cigarette packs.
Priya Sheth of CNBC-TV18 has put the spotlight on government's demonetisation drive! One industry that is facing the heat of this move is the cigarette industry. Channel checks reveal that the cash crunch has led to retail sales dipping by about 30 to 35 percent.
Most analysts are positive on ITC given sharp underperformance in past months on GST concerns. JP Morgan is overweight on ITC stating that some uncertainty will remain on the final taxation change for ITC. It adds earnings impact could be gauged only as clarity emerges on quantum and nature of cess on sin products.
Sanjay Manyal of ICICI Direct is positive on the stock on FMCG side. Food business is expected to grow at 15 percent plus compounded annual growth rate and will aid future growth for the company.
Surprisingly, its cigarette revenue grew 7 percent in Q2 at Rs 8528 crore against Rs 7963 crore year-on-year. In Q2, EBITDA grew 7.3 percent at Rs 3630 crore against Rs 3383 crore while margins were almost flat at 26.7 percent against 26.8 percent (YoY).
Cigarette-hotel-to-FMCG major ITC is expected to show good performance in quarterly earnings on Tuesday as profit is likely to increase 10 percent year-on-year to Rs 2,673 crore with likely cigarette volume growth of 3-4 percent in Q2.
King Maker Marketing, registered in the state of New Jersey, USA, is engaged in the distribution of ITC manufactured cigarette products in the US market.
Macquarie is optimistic that FY17 cigarette EBIT growth can be in double digits aided by volume growth and margin expansion due to a shift of brands to the 64mm category. It estimates cigarette volume growth of 4 percent in Q2FY17.
For Delhi, the study found that 54 percent of the cigarette packs and 55 percent of smokeless tobacco packs were fully compliant with all the labeling requirements mandated under the the law.
Central excise collection from the Mumbai Zone jumped 36 per cent to Rs 15,729 crore in the first quarter of 2016-17 from Rs 11,551 crore a year ago, a senior official said today.
Citi has a buy rating on the stock with an increased target price of Rs 295 per share. After 12 quarters of negative or subdued volumes, Q1FY17 retail volumes slightly higher at 4-5 percent is positive for the FMCG major. It adds that despite better volumes, mix shift to 64mm and constrained pricing have impacted cigarette EBIT slightly.