At the beginning of the last month of monsoon season, the agricultural scenario does look fairly stable though the outcome for specific crops could be affected by the dry weather conditions. The area under cultivation has been higher this year for almost all crops so far. The overall inflationary impact would be muted, says CARE.
The progress in the industrial growth in the subsequent quarters could hold the key to the economy‘s growth in the current fiscal considering the risks emanating from the country‘s agriculture segment given the prevailing monsoon conditions, says CARE Ratings.
CARE Ratings has come out with its study on banking sector, which covers 38 banks - 26 Public sector banks & 12 private sector banks. The rating agency estimates PSU banks‘ NPA likely to increase by 30-40 bps and likely to be in the range of 5.2-5.3% by March 2016.
Forex impact on industries: "Companies have to keep a watch on the rupee movements and take a call on whether the present disturbance in the forex market is transient or permanent. The rupee is likely to settle at a higher level than earlier and it is unlikely that it would revert to the less than Rs 64 level", says CARE Ratings.
CARE Ratings has published a report on "New urea policy 2015: Positive for urea industry" The policy for production above reassessed capacity is likely to be positive for all urea units as it entitles units for a fixed contribution, subject to a cap of IPP of urea plus other incidental charges that GoI incurs on imported urea, says the report.
In the monetary review, RBI has maintained status quo position on all policy rates. Inflationary concerns appears to be the driving factor though the RBI has stated that the rate will remain below 6% by January based on current expectations. Expect 25 bps cut in Q3 of the year, says CARE Ratings.
WPI inflation for the month of June 2015 was -2.4% and continues to be in the negative zone for 5 months now. "as there has been no pick-up in bank credit, there is no pressing need to lower rates at this point of time. Therefore no rate action is expected in the August review", says CARE Ratings.
According to CARE Ratings, the inflation is expected to be stable with increased hopes of better than expected monsoons. "No change in RBI policy rates is expected in August", says the rating agency.
CARE Ratings has come out with its report on "Intensifying competition leading to margin contraction for CFS players at JNPT".
WPI inflation is likely to remain subdued in the coming month given that a large weightage in the index is accorded to manufactured products (65%) which are unlikely to see a sharp & sudden spike given the prevailing and foreseeable conditions in the global crude oil and metal prices and with domestic demand yet to register noteworthy pick-up:CARE
The IIP for the first month of the current fiscal surpassed market expectations and indicated the fairly strong growth in industrial growth in the domestic economy: CARE Ratings.
According to CARE Ratings, RBI is expected to hold on to the repo rate at the existing level of 7.25%. A cut in the rate is likely only in H2 FY16 contingent on inflation treading the expected path, says the report.
CARE Ratings has come out with its report on "Urea sector needs pooling of many reforms apart from gas pooling".
CARE Ratings has published an update on Utilization of gas based power plants. The rating agency notes that, the average cost of power purchase for the DISCOMs in these states are likely to increase between 35-40 paisa per unit in FY16 after implementation of the scheme.
According to CARE Ratings, RBI is expected to hold interest rate at the existing level in its next policy announcement.
CARE Ratings has released its Debt Quality Index called CDQI in a function held in Mumbai. "â€˜This is probably the first of its type and we are happy to provide an important number on the quality of debt in the country", says the rating agency.
CARE Ratings has come out with its report on Rupee. According to the rating agency, Rupee can slide further towards Rs 65.
GDP growth, by the new methodology adopted by the CSO, is expected to be 7.4% in FY15 compared with 6.9% in FY14, says CARE Ratings.
The negative inflation is a positive sign. The RBI while taking a call on the interest rates would be watching the inflationary movements closely. The RBI could cut policy rates in between the policies too if it finds the inflation numbers within its satisfactory limits, says CARE Ratings.
According to CARE Ratings RBI is expected to hold its policy rate at the existing 7.5% in its next policy announcement in June ‘15.
CARE Equity Research has assigned a fundamental grade of 4 [Four] for the equity shares of Responsive Industries, indicating â€˜Very Good Fundamentals‘.
CARE Research has released its report on "Power Distribution Sector Reforms - Need of the hour". The research is of the opinion that the introduction of competition in retail power supply could be limited to commercial and industrial consumers.
CARE Ratings has come out with its report on RBI's Monetary Policy. The rating agency foresee a 50 basis points cut in the repo rate in FY16, the same is unlikely to be seen till June '15, says the report.
CARE Ratings has maintained fundamental and valuation grade of 4/5 to PC Jeweller (PCJ), in its report dated March 31, 2015.
CARE Ratings expects its ratings on grid connected solar players to remain stable on back of conducive policy framework, satisfactory operating levels and reducing gap in tariff compared with conventional sources. "Sunny outlook for solar generators; counterparty risk a dark cloud", says the rating agency.