Apr 23, 2012, 03.44 PM | Source: CNBC-TV18
Agam Gupta, managing director, head of FXRC, South Asia, Standard Chartered Bank foresees the rupee sliding to the levels of 52.50-53 per USD in the next few weeks.
Agam Gupta (more)
MD & FI Trading, Standard Chartered Bank | Capital Expertise: Currencies
"Any dips to 51.80 should be bought, so in the short term there is a risk of us going to 52.50 or even 53 over the next couple of weeks. This will get exaggerated especially if you see a bit of risk off on the global markets," he said in an interview to CNBC-TV18.
Given the widening current account deficit, soaring crude oil prices and high demand for oil, he sees a possibility of rupee jumping higher than 53 per USD levels .
“If and when rupee touches 53.5 54 per USD levels, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) might intervene to stop the rupee’s movement, he added. Meanwhile, the rupee recovered from early lows today helped by dollar sales from some foreign banks, but Gupta doesn’t see rupee heading back below 50 per USD levels anytime soon.
Below is the edited transcript of Gupta's interview with CNBC-TV18. Also watch the accompanying video.
Q: What is your own sense of the near term moves of the rupee say for the month of April and maybe early May, do you think it remains ranged or we could see some bad news for the rupee fairly quickly?
A: Basically, it looks from the price action that any dips on the USD INR are getting bought and a short term support at 51.80/USD is in place. Any dips to 51.80 should be bought, so in the short term there is a risk of us going to 52.50/USD or even 53/USD over the next couple of weeks. This will get exaggerated especially if you see a bit of risk off on the global markets.
We are in a situation right now where any sort of stability or risk on mood in the global markets at best in the rupee just translates to stability, but not to a down move on dollar-rupee. That kind of makes me feel that there is a risk of 52.50/USD, 52.75-53/USD getting tested in the short end.
Q: If you look at historical data or in the past week itself the rupee depreciated a 1.5% as compared to other currencies. According to you, which currency do you think we are tracking the most? Do you expect us to possibly touch those levels of around 54 that we had seen late last year?
A: If you look at the way market participants look at rupee relative to other currencies, it’s against either the 36 country ReR, so it won’t be fair to say there is any specific currency that the rupee tracks. But if you look at what the RBI tracks, it’s the 36 country ReR and the 6 country ReR, so we will continue to be tracked against a basket of currencies.
If you are looking at immediate market reaction to any currency move it broadly tracks dollar Asia and the G-10 differently on different days. At the moment rupee seems to be doing its own thing, but in the medium term it will track the 36 country and the 6 country ReR.
Q: You spoke of 53 maybe in the near term itself. What is your sense of the slightly longer term? At the moment there is no question of if it will touch 54, but when it will break that near term high?
A: Yes, the market is looking at higher levels because of the fact that we have a stubborn trade deficit and that refuses to go away right now. Also, oil prices remain high and India's oil demand remains pretty high, it doesn’t get impacted by the high crude price.