Mecklai Graph of the day: Will USDINR surge further?

The recent rejig in the Indian Ministry Portfolios shows a dearth of deserving candidates to take care of decisive positions in the government. Mr. P. Chidambaram takes back the Finance ministry after a three and a half years hiatus. The flip flop seems to be overflowing from the allocation of ministries to the framing of prudent, self sufficient policies for India as well. In the recent past, draconian, archaic and shunted laws and bills have made India insipid and abhorrent among the foreign investor fraternity. The recent power grid failure across the northern states of the nation was widely reported in international dailies. This points towards a cracking economy, which may very well turn into chasms of economic turmoil and make the already battered rupee more vulnerable in trade.

The below graph shows the a technical case in point which shows a falling trend line with a resistance of about 56.15/ 20 levels. A breach of those levels will thrust the USDINR pair to fill the gap at close to 56.80 odd levels. Also, as per a recent graph study by us (Mecklai Graph of the Day as on 26th July), we highlighted the August Anomaly for the markets for the past 4 years. This trend shows that the rupee has managed to weaken up to 2.62% on average for the month in the past 4 years. The recent crisis like situation surrounding us mentioned above commingled with the technical view and the anomaly does little to put a smile on rupee bulls. It would be interesting to see how the forthcoming weeks unfold in regards to the above mentioned studies.

The below graph depicts the trend line resistance drawn against the daily chart for the USD/ INR.

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